This 1997 book provides a penetrating account of death and disease in England during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Using a wide range of sources for the south-east of England, the author highlights the tremendous variation in levels of mortality across geographical contours and across two centuries. She explores the epidemiological causes and consequences of these mortality variations, and offers the reader a fascinating insight into the way patients and practitioners perceived, understood and reacted to the multitude of fevers, poxes and plagues in past times. She examines, in particular, the significance of malaria in English demographic history, and provides a detailed account of the history of this once endemic disease. This broad-ranging and stimulating study will be of interest to historical demographers, medical historians, geographers and epidemiologists.

Seasonal patterns have been found in a remarkable range of health conditions, including birth defects, respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease. Accurately estimating the size and timing of seasonal peaks in disease incidence is an aid to understanding the causes and possibly to developing interventions. With global warming increasing the intensity of seasonal weather patterns around the world, a review of the methods for estimating seasonal effects on health is timely.

This is the first book on statistical methods for seasonal data written for a health audience. It describes methods for a range of outcomes (including continuous, count and binomial data) and demonstrates appropriate techniques for summarising and modelling these data. It has a practical focus and uses interesting examples to motivate and illustrate the methods. The statistical procedures and example data sets are available in an R package called season .

Explores how authoritarian regimes are deploying "sharp power" to undermine democracies from within by weaponizing universities, institutions, media, technology, and entertainment industries. The world's dictators are no longer content with shoring up control over their own populations—they are now exploiting the openness of the free world to spread disinformation, sow discord, and suppress dissent. In Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power, editors William J. Dobson, Tarek Masoud, and Christopher Walker bring together leading analysts to explain how the world's authoritarians are attempting to erode the pillars of democratic societies—and what we can do about it. Popular media, entertainment industries, universities, the tech world, and even critical political institutions are being manipulated by dictators who advance their regimes' interests by weakening democracies from within. Autocrats' use of "sharp power" constitutes one of the gravest threats to liberal, representative government today. The optimistic, early twenty-first-century narrative of how globalization, the spread of the internet, and the rise of social media would lead to liberalization everywhere is now giving way to the realization that these same forces provide inroads to those wishing to snuff out democracy at the source. And while autocrats can do much to wall their societies off from democratic and liberal influences, free societies have not yet fully grasped how they can resist the threat of sharp power while preserving their fundamental openness and freedom. Far from offering a counsel of despair, the international contributors in this collection identify the considerable resources that democracy provides for blunting sharp power's edge. With careful case studies of successful resistance efforts in such countries as Australia, the Czech Republic, and Taiwan, this book offers an urgent message for anyone concerned with the defense of democracy in the twenty-first century. Contributors: Ketty W. Chen, Sarah Cook, William J. Dobson, John Fitzgerald, Martin Hála, Samantha Hoffman, Aynne Kokas, Edward Lucas, Tarek Masoud, Nadège Rolland, Ruslan Stefanov, Glenn Tiffert, Martin Vladimirov, Christopher Walker

Kid's Box is a six-level course for young learners. Bursting with bright ideas to inspire both teachers and students, Kid's Box gives children a confident start to learning English, fully covering the syllabus for the Cambridge Young Learners English (YLE) tests. These Level 6 Posters aid revision by giving pupils the chance to practise unit language in a different context. This pack includes eight posters and clear teaching notes.

An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models, Fourth Edition provides a cohesive framework for statistical modelling, with an emphasis on numerical and graphical methods. This new edition of a bestseller has been updated with new sections on non-linear associations, strategies for model selection, and a Postface on good statistical practice. Like its predecessor, this edition presents the theoretical background of generalized linear models (GLMs) before focusing on methods for analyzing particular kinds of data. It covers Normal, Poisson, and Binomial distributions; linear regression models; classical estimation and model fitting methods; and frequentist methods of statistical inference. After forming this foundation, the authors explore multiple linear regression, analysis of variance (ANOVA), logistic regression, log-linear models, survival analysis, multilevel modeling, Bayesian models, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Introduces GLMs in a way that enables readers to understand the unifying structure that underpins them Discusses common concepts and principles of advanced GLMs, including nominal and ordinal regression, survival analysis, non-linear associations and longitudinal analysis Connects Bayesian analysis and MCMC methods to fit GLMs Contains numerous examples from business, medicine, engineering, and the social sciences Provides the example code for R, Stata, and WinBUGS to encourage implementation of the methods Offers the data sets and solutions to the exercises online Describes the components of good statistical practice to improve scientific validity and reproducibility of results. Using popular statistical software programs, this concise and accessible text illustrates practical approaches to estimation, model fitting, and model comparisons.

Seasonal patterns have been found in a remarkable range of health conditions, including birth defects, respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease. Accurately estimating the size and timing of seasonal peaks in disease incidence is an aid to understanding the causes and possibly to developing interventions. With global warming increasing the intensity of seasonal weather patterns around the world, a review of the methods for estimating seasonal effects on health is timely.

This is the first book on statistical methods for seasonal data written for a health audience. It describes methods for a range of outcomes (including continuous, count and binomial data) and demonstrates appropriate techniques for summarising and modelling these data. It has a practical focus and uses interesting examples to motivate and illustrate the methods. The statistical procedures and example data sets are available in an R package called season ."

An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models, Fourth Edition provides a cohesive framework for statistical modelling, with an emphasis on numerical and graphical methods. This new edition of a bestseller has been updated with new sections on non-linear associations, strategies for model selection, and a Postface on good statistical practice. Like its predecessor, this edition presents the theoretical background of generalized linear models (GLMs) before focusing on methods for analyzing particular kinds of data. It covers Normal, Poisson, and Binomial distributions; linear regression models; classical estimation and model fitting methods; and frequentist methods of statistical inference. After forming this foundation, the authors explore multiple linear regression, analysis of variance (ANOVA), logistic regression, log-linear models, survival analysis, multilevel modeling, Bayesian models, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Introduces GLMs in a way that enables readers to understand the unifying structure that underpins them Discusses common concepts and principles of advanced GLMs, including nominal and ordinal regression, survival analysis, non-linear associations and longitudinal analysis Connects Bayesian analysis and MCMC methods to fit GLMs Contains numerous examples from business, medicine, engineering, and the social sciences Provides the example code for R, Stata, and WinBUGS to encourage implementation of the methods Offers the data sets and solutions to the exercises online Describes the components of good statistical practice to improve scientific validity and reproducibility of results. Using popular statistical software programs, this concise and accessible text illustrates practical approaches to estimation, model fitting, and model comparisons.

This book is about generalized linear models as described by NeIder and Wedderburn (1972). This approach provides a unified theoretical and computational framework for the most commonly used statistical methods: regression, analysis of variance and covariance, logistic regression, log-linear models for contingency tables and several more specialized techniques. More advanced expositions of the subject are given by McCullagh and NeIder (1983) and Andersen (1980). The emphasis is on the use of statistical models to investigate substantive questions rather than to produce mathematical descriptions of the data. Therefore parameter estimation and hypothesis testing are stressed. I have assumed that the reader is familiar with the most commonly used statistical concepts and methods and has some basic knowledge of calculus and matrix algebra. Short numerical examples are used to illustrate the main points. In writing this book I have been helped greatly by the comments and criticism of my students and colleagues, especially Anne Young. However, the choice of material, and the obscurities and errors are my responsibility and I apologize to the reader for any irritation caused by them. For typing the manuscript under difficult conditions I am grateful to Anne McKim, Jan Garnsey, Cath Claydon and Julie Latimer.

Dr. Dobson's suggestions for marital happiness are interesting, practical, and humorous.

Spanish available

Written between the late-1970s and 2012, this collection of newsletters is a snapshot of country musician Richard J. Dobson's life and observations. With all the humor and sadness that comes from years of hard traveling, he covers topics as diverse as politics, the vagaries of human behavior, and the ever-changing state of the music industry. Taken as a whole, the book shows us a portrait of ourselves as we were-and how we've changed-filtered through Dobson's own adventures and friendships.

This book provides a penetrating account of death and disease in early modern England. Using a wide range of sources for the southeast of England, the author highlights the tremendous variation in levels of mortality across geographical contours and across two centuries of time. She explores the epidemiological causes and consequences of these mortality variations, and offers the reader a fascinating insight into the way patients and practitioners perceived, understood and reacted to the multitude of fevers, poxes and plagues in past times.