This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts, analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and total population. The book contains more traditional applications such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory. Real world empirical examples are provided for every application; along with excel files containing data and program code, which are accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement for other courses including applied demography, business and economic forecasting and market research.

This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts, analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and total population. The book contains more traditional applications such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory. Real world empirical examples are provided for every application; along with excel files containing data and program code, which are accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement for other courses including applied demography, business and economic forecasting and market research.

Seismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology.

Fifty years after their marriage, Jack and Michael's story is one of the milestone events in the fight for equal rights, and this memoir the unmissable account a remarkable couple. On September 3, 1971, at the dawn of the modern gay movement, Michael McConnell and Jack Baker exchanged vows in the first legal same-sex wedding in the United States. But the battle to get there - legal and emotional - was only the start of their incredible lives together. Jack enrolled in law school, keeping his promise to Michael that he would figure out a way to marry. He did, but the repercussions would echo not only through their lives, but through those of everyo gay person in the US who ever wanted what this one pioneering couple did: a happy family life. This is the story of how they met, how they married, and what came after. And one wedding heard 'round the world. 'A beautiful, well-written love story that is heartrending and ultimately heartwarming' Robert Alexander, New York Times bestselling author of The Kitchen Boy 'A fascinating story of love and struggle that reads like a novel' Washington Book Review

Welcome to Comiso is the history of a small air base in Sicily. The book is about the role the base played in WWII and then during the beddown of the Ground Launched Cruise Missile ( GLCM) in Europe. GLCM transformed a base with bombed out buildings to one that housed a nuclear missile weapon system. The GLCM beddown was one of the biggest " battles" of the Cold War, its outcome resulted in the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces ( INF) Treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1987. Using the backdrop of the " art left on the walls" during WWII, the author highlights the experiences of people who lived through the invasion of Sicily and then the accomplishments of the next generation of men and women who rebuilt the base in 1983 to support its Cold War mission, GLCM.