This book presents a selection of papers presented to the Second Inter national Symposium on Semi-Markov Models: Theory and Applications held in Compiegne (France) in December 1998. This international meeting had the same aim as the first one held in Brussels in 1984: to make, fourteen years later, the state of the art in the field of semi-Markov processes and their applications, bring together researchers in this field and also to stimulate fruitful discussions. The set of the subjects of the papers presented in Compiegne has a lot of similarities with the preceding Symposium; this shows that the main fields of semi-Markov processes are now well established particularly for basic applications in Reliability and Maintenance, Biomedicine, Queue ing, Control processes and production. A growing field is the one of insurance and finance but this is not really a surprising fact as the problem of pricing derivative products represents now a crucial problem in economics and finance. For example, stochastic models can be applied to financial and insur ance models as we have to evaluate the uncertainty of the future market behavior in order, firstly, to propose different measures for important risks such as the interest risk, the risk of default or the risk of catas trophe and secondly, to describe how to act in order to optimize the situation in time. Recently, the concept of VaR (Value at Risk) was "discovered" in portfolio theory enlarging so the fundamental model of Markowitz."

This book is the result of the International Symposium on Semi Markov Processes and their Applications held on June 4-7, 1984 at the Universite Libre de Bruxelles with the help of the FNRS (Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Belgium), the Ministere de l'Education Nationale (Belgium) and the Bernoulli Society for Mathe matical Statistics and Probability. This international meeting was planned to make a state of the art for the area of semi-Markov theory and its applications, to bring together researchers in this field and to create a platform for open and thorough discussion. Main themes of the Symposium are the first ten sections of this book. The last section presented here gives an exhaustive biblio graphy on semi-Markov processes for the last ten years. Papers selected for this book are all invited papers and in addition some contributed papers retained after strong refereeing. Sections are I. Markov additive processes and regenerative systems II. Semi-Markov decision processes III. Algorithmic and computer-oriented approach IV. Semi-Markov models in economy and insurance V. Semi-Markov processes and reliability theory VI. Simulation and statistics for semi-Markov processes VII. Semi-Markov processes and queueing theory VIII. Branching IX. Applications in medicine X. Applications in other fields v PREFACE XI. A second bibliography on semi-Markov processes It is interesting to quote that sections IV to X represent a good sample of the main applications of semi-Markov processes i. e."

Aims to give to the reader the tools necessary to apply semi-Markov processes in real-life problems.

The book is self-contained and, starting from a low level of probability concepts, gradually brings the reader to a deep knowledge of semi-Markov processes.

Presents homogeneous and non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes, as well as Markov and semi-Markov rewards processes.

The concepts are fundamental for many applications, but they are not as thoroughly presented in other books on the subject as they are here.

Advances in Stochastic Modelling and Data Analysis presents the most recent developments in the field, together with their applications, mainly in the areas of insurance, finance, forecasting and marketing. In addition, the possible interactions between data analysis, artificial intelligence, decision support systems and multicriteria analysis are examined by top researchers. Audience: A wide readership drawn from theoretical and applied mathematicians, such as operations researchers, management scientists, statisticians, computer scientists, bankers, marketing managers, forecasters, and scientific societies such as EURO and TIMS.

This book presents applications of semi-Markov processes in finance, insurance and reliability, using real-life problems as examples. After a presentation of the main probabilistic tools necessary for understanding of the book, the authors show how to apply semi-Markov processes in finance, starting from the axiomatic definition and continuing eventually to the most advanced financial tools, particularly in insurance and in risk-and-ruin theories. Also considered are reliability problems that interact with credit risk theory in finance. The unique approach of this book is to solve finance and insurance problems with semi-Markov models in a complete way and furthermore present real-life applications of semi-Markov processes.

This book is the result of the International Symposium on Semi Markov Processes and their Applications held on June 4-7, 1984 at the Universite Libre de Bruxelles with the help of the FNRS (Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Belgium), the Ministere de l'Education Nationale (Belgium) and the Bernoulli Society for Mathe matical Statistics and Probability. This international meeting was planned to make a state of the art for the area of semi-Markov theory and its applications, to bring together researchers in this field and to create a platform for open and thorough discussion. Main themes of the Symposium are the first ten sections of this book. The last section presented here gives an exhaustive biblio graphy on semi-Markov processes for the last ten years. Papers selected for this book are all invited papers and in addition some contributed papers retained after strong refereeing. Sections are I. Markov additive processes and regenerative systems II. Semi-Markov decision processes III. Algorithmic and computer-oriented approach IV. Semi-Markov models in economy and insurance V. Semi-Markov processes and reliability theory VI. Simulation and statistics for semi-Markov processes VII. Semi-Markov processes and queueing theory VIII. Branching IX. Applications in medicine X. Applications in other fields v PREFACE XI. A second bibliography on semi-Markov processes It is interesting to quote that sections IV to X represent a good sample of the main applications of semi-Markov processes i. e."

This book is the result of the fourth International Symposium on Data Analysis held on June 1985 at the Universite Libre de Bruxelles with the help'of the European Institute for Advanced Management. As the preceding ones, the organization of the Symposium started with a call for real life problems from which an International Com mittee selected six topics and asked for several solutions. These topics are : I) Multivariate and longitudinal data on growing children 2) Prehistoric assemblages and lithic artifacts from a small We- european area 3) A comparison of results of European elections 4) Classification of heterogeneous data related to microcomputers 5) Group technology in production management 6) Juvenile gelinquency They are covered by the S1X chapters of this book in the following systematic way : a) firstly, a presentation of the problem is given in the original context of the relevant discipline (Medicine, archaelogy, politics, marketing, production and education); b) Secondly, we present the solution found by people who presents the problem; c) thirdly, we find the other retained solutions among the most significative ones; v vi PREFACE d) finally, a short conclusion compares the different approaches. The diversity of the six selected problems clearly shows that Data Analysis can be used for solving a wide variety of problems. Moreover, the fact that each problem is approached by several dif ferent way - at least two - also shows that, in general, a "univer sal" statistical method does not exist.

Aims to give to the reader the tools necessary to apply semi-Markov processes in real-life problems.

The book is self-contained and, starting from a low level of probability concepts, gradually brings the reader to a deep knowledge of semi-Markov processes.

Presents homogeneous and non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes, as well as Markov and semi-Markov rewards processes.

The concepts are fundamental for many applications, but they are not as thoroughly presented in other books on the subject as they are here.

Advances in Stochastic Modelling and Data Analysis presents the most recent developments in the field, together with their applications, mainly in the areas of insurance, finance, forecasting and marketing. In addition, the possible interactions between data analysis, artificial intelligence, decision support systems and multicriteria analysis are examined by top researchers. Audience: A wide readership drawn from theoretical and applied mathematicians, such as operations researchers, management scientists, statisticians, computer scientists, bankers, marketing managers, forecasters, and scientific societies such as EURO and TIMS.

Everyone working in related fields from applied mathematicians to statisticians to actuaries and operations researchers will find this a brilliantly useful practical text. The book presents applications of semi-Markov processes in finance, insurance and reliability, using real-life problems as examples. After a presentation of the main probabilistic tools necessary for understanding of the book, the authors show how to apply semi-Markov processes in finance, starting from the axiomatic definition and continuing eventually to the most advanced financial tools.

This book presents a selection of papers presented to the Second Inter national Symposium on Semi-Markov Models: Theory and Applications held in Compiegne (France) in December 1998. This international meeting had the same aim as the first one held in Brussels in 1984: to make, fourteen years later, the state of the art in the field of semi-Markov processes and their applications, bring together researchers in this field and also to stimulate fruitful discussions. The set of the subjects of the papers presented in Compiegne has a lot of similarities with the preceding Symposium; this shows that the main fields of semi-Markov processes are now well established particularly for basic applications in Reliability and Maintenance, Biomedicine, Queue ing, Control processes and production. A growing field is the one of insurance and finance but this is not really a surprising fact as the problem of pricing derivative products represents now a crucial problem in economics and finance. For example, stochastic models can be applied to financial and insur ance models as we have to evaluate the uncertainty of the future market behavior in order, firstly, to propose different measures for important risks such as the interest risk, the risk of default or the risk of catas trophe and secondly, to describe how to act in order to optimize the situation in time. Recently, the concept of VaR (Value at Risk) was "discovered" in portfolio theory enlarging so the fundamental model of Markowitz."