This book uses machine-learning to identify the causes of conflict from among the top predictors of conflict. This methodology elevates some complex causal pathways that cause civil conflict over others, thus teasing out the complex interrelationships between the most important variables that cause civil conflict. Success in this realm will lead to scientific theories of conflict that will be useful in preventing and ending civil conflict. After setting out a current review of the literature and a case for using machine learning to analyze and predict civil conflict, the authors lay out the data set, important variables, and investigative strategy of their methodology. The authors then investigate institutional causes, economic causes, and sociological causes for civil conflict, and how that feeds into their model. The methodology provides an identifiable pathway for specifying causal models. This book will be of interest to scholars in the areas of economics, political science, sociology, and artificial intelligence who want to learn more about leveraging machine learning technologies to solve problems and who are invested in preventing civil conflict.

International Remittance Payments are described mainly as money sent by immigrants to their families and friends in their home countries. These payments provide an important source of income that is mostly used to provide for a variety of basic needs of the non-migrating members of immigrant families and thus remittance payments can be considered as a tool to reduce the poverty level of the labor sending countries. However, remittances are also used for asset accumulation by some families and for some countries they constitute a good part of foreign funds coming into the country. In-spite of their increasing volume over the last few decades, a lot of things about remittances are not known and studies estimate that about half of these money transfers are not even recorded. Since these payments are shown to reduce poverty and help economic progress in the remittance receiving countries, a better knowledge about remittances would help the debates surrounding immigration, remittances and their relation to the global economy. This book provides an overview of remittances in different parts of the world over the last thirty years. It looks at the labor sending and labor receiving countries separately. The text examines the trends, uses, motivations behind sending remittances, cost of sending them and how they are affected by the nature and the development level of different institutional factors. The remittance flows are growing over time and they are used mostly for reducing the uncertainty of life in the less developed parts of the world. However, motivation for sending remittances could be improved and thus remittances could be more conducive to economic development if 1) the relation between the remittance decision and the migration decision is better understood and 2) the costs of international money transfers are reduced. More studies about those issues would benefit the international community. Efforts should be made in all fronts to encourage such international flow of funds not only to have a redistribution of income all over the world, but also to synchronize the efforts towards global economic development and a better integration of the world economy. This book is aimed researchers, policy practitioners and post graduates studying International Economics or International Economic Relations or Political Science or Economic Development.

International Remittance Payments are described mainly as money sent by immigrants to their families and friends in their home countries. These payments provide an important source of income that is mostly used to provide for a variety of basic needs of the non-migrating members of immigrant families and thus remittance payments can be considered as a tool to reduce the poverty level of the labor sending countries. However, remittances are also used for asset accumulation by some families and for some countries they constitute a good part of foreign funds coming into the country. In-spite of their increasing volume over the last few decades, a lot of things about remittances are not known and studies estimate that about half of these money transfers are not even recorded. Since these payments are shown to reduce poverty and help economic progress in the remittance receiving countries, a better knowledge about remittances would help the debates surrounding immigration, remittances and their relation to the global economy. This book provides an overview of remittances in different parts of the world over the last thirty years. It looks at the labor sending and labor receiving countries separately. The text examines the trends, uses, motivations behind sending remittances, cost of sending them and how they are affected by the nature and the development level of different institutional factors. The remittance flows are growing over time and they are used mostly for reducing the uncertainty of life in the less developed parts of the world. However, motivation for sending remittances could be improved and thus remittances could be more conducive to economic development if 1) the relation between the remittance decision and the migration decision is better understood and 2) the costs of international money transfers are reduced. More studies about those issues would benefit the international community. Efforts should be made in all fronts to encourage such international flow of funds not only to have a redistribution of income all over the world, but also to synchronize the efforts towards global economic development and a better integration of the world economy. This book is aimed researchers, policy practitioners and post graduates studying International Economics or International Economic Relations or Political Science or Economic Development.

This book develops a machine-learning framework for predicting economic growth. It can also be considered as a primer for using machine learning (also known as data mining or data analytics) to answer economic questions. While machine learning itself is not a new idea, advances in computing technology combined with a dawning realization of its applicability to economic questions makes it a new tool for economists.

This book should be useful to anyone interested in identifying the causes of civil conflict and doing something to end it. It even suggests a pathway for the lay reader. Civil conflict is a persistent source of misery to humankind. Its study, however, lacks a comprehensive theory of its causes. Nevertheless, the question of cooperation or conflict is at the heart of political economy. This book introduces Machine Learning to explore whether there even is a unified theory of conflict, and if there is, whether it is a 'good' one. A good theory is one that not only identifies the causes of conflict, but also identifies those causes that predict conflict. Machine learning algorithms use out of sample techniques to choose between competing hypotheses about the sources of conflict according to their predictive accuracy. This theoretically agnostic 'picking' has the added benefit of offering some protection against many of the problems noted in the current literature; the tangled causality between conflict and its correlates, the relative rarity of civil conflict at a global level, missing data, and spectacular statistical assumptions. This book argues that the search for a unified theory of conflict must begin among these more predictive sources of civil conflict. In fact, in the book, there is a clear sense that game theoretic rational choice models of bargaining/commitment failure predict conflict better than any other approach. In addition, the algorithms highlight the fact that conflict is path dependent - it tends to continue once started. This is intuitive in many ways but is roundly ignored as a matter of science. It should not. Further, those causes of conflict that best predict conflict can be used as policy levers to end or prevent conflict. This book should therefore be of interest to military and civil leaders engaged in ending civil conflict. Last, though not least, the book highlights how the sources of conflict affect conflict. This additional insight may allow the crafting of policies that match a country's specific circumstance.