I Principles 1 1 Models of Systems 3 1. 1 Systems. Models. and Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1. 2 Uses of Scientific Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1. 3 Example: Island Biogeography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1. 4 Classifications of Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1. 5 Constraints on Model Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1. 6 Some Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1. 7 Misuses of Models: The Dark Side . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1. 8 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2 The Modeling Process 17 2. 1 Models Are Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2. 2 Two Alternative Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2. 3 An Example: Population Doubling Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2. 4 Model Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2. 5 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 3 Qualitative Model Formulation 32 3. 1 How to Eat an Elephant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 3. 2 Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3. 3 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3. 4 Errors in Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3. 5 Advantages and Disadvantages of Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . 44 3. 6 Principles of Qualitative Formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3. 7 Model Simplification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3. 8 Other Modeling Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 viii Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. 9 Exercises 53 4 Quantitative Model Formulation: I 4. 1 From Qualitative to Quantitative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finite Difference Equations and Differential Equations 4. 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 3 Biological Feedback in Quantitative Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 4 Example Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 5 Exercises 5 Quantitative Model Formulation: I1 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 1 Physical Processes 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 2 Using the Toolbox of Biological Processes 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 3 Useful Functions 96 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 4 Examples 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 5 Exercises 104 6 Numerical Techniques 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 1 Mistakes Computers Make 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 2 Numerical Integration 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 3 Numerical Instability and Stiff Equations 115 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

I Principles 1 1 Models of Systems 3 1. 1 Systems. Models. and Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1. 2 Uses of Scientific Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1. 3 Example: Island Biogeography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1. 4 Classifications of Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1. 5 Constraints on Model Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1. 6 Some Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1. 7 Misuses of Models: The Dark Side . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1. 8 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2 The Modeling Process 17 2. 1 Models Are Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2. 2 Two Alternative Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2. 3 An Example: Population Doubling Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2. 4 Model Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2. 5 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 3 Qualitative Model Formulation 32 3. 1 How to Eat an Elephant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 3. 2 Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3. 3 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3. 4 Errors in Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3. 5 Advantages and Disadvantages of Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . 44 3. 6 Principles of Qualitative Formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3. 7 Model Simplification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3. 8 Other Modeling Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 viii Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. 9 Exercises 53 4 Quantitative Model Formulation: I 4. 1 From Qualitative to Quantitative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finite Difference Equations and Differential Equations 4. 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 3 Biological Feedback in Quantitative Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 4 Example Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 5 Exercises 5 Quantitative Model Formulation: I1 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 1 Physical Processes 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 2 Using the Toolbox of Biological Processes 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 3 Useful Functions 96 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 4 Examples 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 5 Exercises 104 6 Numerical Techniques 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 1 Mistakes Computers Make 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 2 Numerical Integration 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 3 Numerical Instability and Stiff Equations 115 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

This book is intended as a text for a first course on creating and analyzing computer simulation models of biological systems. The expected audience for this book are students wishing to use dynamic models to interpret real data mueh as they would use standard statistical techniques. It is meant to provide both the essential principles as well as the details and equa tions applicable to a few particular systems and subdisciplines. Biological systems, however, encompass a vast, diverse array of topics and problems. This book discusses only a select number of these that I have found to be useful and interesting to biologists just beginning their appreciation of computer simulation. The examples chosen span classical mathematical models of well-studied systems to state-of-the-art topics such as cellular automata and artificial life. I have stressed the relationship between the models and the biology over mathematical analysis in order to give the reader a sense that mathematical models really are useful to biologists. In this light, I have sought examples that address fundamental and, I think, interesting biological questions. Almost all of the models are directly COIIl pared to quantitative data to provide at least a partial demonstration that some biological models can accurately predict."