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This book visualizes mortality dynamics in the Lexis diagram. While
the standard approach of plotting death rates is also covered, the
focus in this book is on the depiction of rates of mortality
improvement over age and time. This rather novel approach offers a
more intuitive understanding of the underlying dynamics, enabling
readers to better understand whether period- or cohort-effects were
instrumental for the development of mortality in a particular
country. Besides maps for single countries, the book includes maps
on the dynamics of selected causes of death in the United States,
such as cardiovascular diseases or lung cancer. The book also
features maps for age-specific contributions to the change in life
expectancy, for cancer survival and for seasonality in mortality
for selected causes of death in the United States. The book is
accompanied by instructions on how to use the freely available R
Software to produce these types of surface maps. Readers are
encouraged to use the presented tools to visualize other
demographic data or any event that can be measured by age and
calendar time, allowing them to adapt the methods to their
respective research interests. The intended audience is anyone who
is interested in visualizing data by age and calendar time; no
specialist knowledge is required. This book is open access under a
CC BY license.
Does human mortality after age 110 continue to rise, level off, or
start to decline? This book describes a concerted, international
research effort undertaken with the goal of establishing a database
that allows the best possible description of the mortality
trajectory beyond the age of 110. The International Database on
Longevity (IDL) is the result of this ongoing effort. The IDL
contains exhaustive information on validated cases of
supercentenarians (people 110 years and older) and allows unbiased
estimates of mortality after age 110. The main finding is
remarkable: human mortality after age 110 is flat at a probability
of death of 50% per year. The sixteen chapters of this book discuss
age validation of exceptional longevity, data on supercentenarians
in a series of countries, structure and contents of the IDL, and
statistical analysis of human mortality after age 110. Several
chapters include short accounts of specific supercentenarians that
add life to demographic research. Content Level Research
How should life expectancy be calculated? More generally, how
should life - bles be estimated? Since John Graunt's pioneering
contribution, read before theRoyalSocietyofLondonat6p. m.
onthe27thofFebruary1661, demog- phers have developed better and
better methods. Some concerns were raised, including concerns about
how to deal with heterogeneous populations p- lished in an article
inDemography in 1979 that I wrote with Kenneth Manton and Eric
Stallard. Yet, a few years ago nearly all demographers believed
that as long as the underlying population and death counts were
accurate, then lifetables could be reliably estimated. John
Bongaarts and Gri? Feeney launched a revolutionary assault on this
dogma. Two key contributions by them are reprinted in Part I of
this mo- graph. Some very good demographers agreed, as least in
part, with B- gaarts' and Feeney's radical argument that when death
rates are changing, then tempo e?ects distort conventional
calculations of life expectancy. Other very good demographers
disagreed. So John Bongaarts and I brought some leading
demographers together in a research meeting, co-sponsored by the
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the Population
Co- cil and held in New York City on November 18 and 19, 2004. Many
of the papers discussed at the workshop, generally after
considerable revision, were published in Demographic Research in
2005 and 2006. Nine of these articles, in some cases somewhat
revised, are published in this monograph: they are the ?rst seven
chapters in Part II and the two chapters in Part III.
An authoritative overview of the concepts and applications of
biological demography This book provides a comprehensive
introduction to biodemography, an exciting interdisciplinary field
that unites the natural science of biology with the social science
of human demography. Biodemography is an essential resource for
demographers, epidemiologists, gerontologists, and health
professionals as well as ecologists, population biologists,
entomologists, and conservation biologists. This accessible and
innovative book is also ideal for the classroom. James Carey and
Deborah Roach cover everything from baseline demographic concepts
to biodemographic applications, and present models and equations in
discrete rather than continuous form to enhance mathematical
accessibility. They use a wealth of real-world examples that draw
from data sets on both human and nonhuman species and offer an
interdisciplinary approach to demography like no other, with topics
ranging from kinship theory and family demography to reliability
engineering, tort law, and demographic disasters such as the
Titanic and the destruction of Napoleon's Grande Armee. Provides
the first synthesis of demography and biology Covers baseline
demographic models and concepts such as Lexis diagrams, mortality,
fecundity, and population theory Features in-depth discussions of
biodemographic applications like harvesting theory and
mark-recapture Draws from data sets on species ranging from fruit
flies and plants to elephants and humans Uses a uniquely
interdisciplinary approach to demography, bringing together a
diverse range of concepts, models, and applications Includes
informative "biodemographic shorts," appendixes on data
visualization and management, and more than 150 illustrations of
models and equations
Paleodemography is the field of enquiry that attempts to identify
demographic parameters from past populations (usually skeletal
samples) derived from archaeological contexts, and then to make
interpretations regarding the health and well-being of those
populations. However, paleodemographic theory relies on several
assumptions that cannot easily be validated by the researcher, and
if incorrect, can lead to large errors or biases. In this book,
physical anthropologists, mathematical demographers and
statisticians tackle these methodological issues for reconstructing
demographic structure for skeletal samples. Topics discussed
include how skeletal morphology is linked to chronological age,
assessment of age from the skeleton, demographic models of
mortality and their interpretation, and biostatistical approaches
to age structure estimation from archaeological samples. This work
will be of immense importance to anyone interested in
paleodemography, including biological and physical anthropologists,
demographers, geographers, evolutionary biologists and
statisticians.
Does human mortality after age 110 continue to rise, level off, or
start to decline? This book describes a concerted, international
research effort undertaken with the goal of establishing a database
that allows the best possible description of the mortality
trajectory beyond the age of 110. The International Database on
Longevity (IDL) is the result of this ongoing effort. The IDL
contains exhaustive information on validated cases of
supercentenarians (people 110 years and older) and allows unbiased
estimates of mortality after age 110. The main finding is
remarkable: human mortality after age 110 is flat at a probability
of death of 50% per year. The sixteen chapters of this book discuss
age validation of exceptional longevity, data on supercentenarians
in a series of countries, structure and contents of the IDL, and
statistical analysis of human mortality after age 110. Several
chapters include short accounts of specific supercentenarians that
add life to demographic research.
Why longevity? For a number of years, the Fondation IPSEN has been
devoting considerable effort to the various aspects of ageing, not
only to age-related diseases such as Alzheimer's, but also to the
Centenarians, the paragon of positive ageing. The logical
continuation of this approach is to address the question of
longevity in global terms. Behind the extreme values, what span is
accessible to all of us and likely to directly concern most of our
contemporaries? The individual and col lective increase in the
duration of life is one of the most striking phenomena of our time.
It could be one of the most significant events in the "bio-social"
history of humanity. The increase in life expectancy at old age,
which started a few de cades ago only, is going on. The most
well-advised observer had not foreseen or even dared hope for this
increase which will drastically affect our everyday life, our
habits and our behavior. In the fragment of human history we are
living in, it is our responsibility to deal with this major
transformation for the species. Such a transformation needs an
effort from all to adapt to the new conditions. This transformation
has to be managed rather than simply experienced, anticip ated
rather than followed, in order to avoid any attempt to pervert this
major step forward. All that was present during the first symposium
of the new series on longevity of the Colloques Medecine et
Recherche convened by the Fondation IPSEN."
How should life expectancy be calculated? More generally, how
should life - bles be estimated? Since John Graunt's pioneering
contribution, read before theRoyalSocietyofLondonat6p. m.
onthe27thofFebruary1661, demog- phers have developed better and
better methods. Some concerns were raised, including concerns about
how to deal with heterogeneous populations p- lished in an article
inDemography in 1979 that I wrote with Kenneth Manton and Eric
Stallard. Yet, a few years ago nearly all demographers believed
that as long as the underlying population and death counts were
accurate, then lifetables could be reliably estimated. John
Bongaarts and Gri? Feeney launched a revolutionary assault on this
dogma. Two key contributions by them are reprinted in Part I of
this mo- graph. Some very good demographers agreed, as least in
part, with B- gaarts' and Feeney's radical argument that when death
rates are changing, then tempo e?ects distort conventional
calculations of life expectancy. Other very good demographers
disagreed. So John Bongaarts and I brought some leading
demographers together in a research meeting, co-sponsored by the
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the Population
Co- cil and held in New York City on November 18 and 19, 2004. Many
of the papers discussed at the workshop, generally after
considerable revision, were published in Demographic Research in
2005 and 2006. Nine of these articles, in some cases somewhat
revised, are published in this monograph: they are the ?rst seven
chapters in Part II and the two chapters in Part III.
Book & Disk. This volume is an array of demographic data which
can often be pictured in an intelligible and graphically striking
way by a shaded contour map. The data might pertain to population
levels or to rates of fertility, marriage, divorce, migration,
morbidity, or mortality. Most often the data are structured by age
and time (eg: age-specific death rates over time). Shaded contour
maps permit visualisation of such demographic surfaces and offer a
panoramic view impossible to obtain from the usual graphs of levels
or rates at selected ages over time or a selected times over age.
Contour maps are particularly effective in highlighting patterns in
the interaction of age, period, and cohort effects. This monograph
presents a bouquet of shaded contour maps to suggest the broad
potential of their use in population studies. The value of such
maps lies in their substantive import. Graphic designs, E R Tufte
concluded, should give "visual access to the subtle and difficult,
that is, the revelation of the complex". Demographic surfaces can
be particularly complex. A mortality surface, for example, might be
defined over a century of age and a century of time, comprising
10,000 date points that may vary over four orders of magnitude.
Shaded contour maps are an arresting, efficient, and clear means of
giving demographers visual access to such data. William Playfair,
the pioneer of graphic methods for presenting statistical data,
argued that with a good visual display "as much information may be
obtained in five minutes as would require whole days to imprint on
the memory, in a lasting manner, by a table of figures". The 100
shaded contour maps in this monograph summarise more than a half
million data points in a memorable, revealing manner.
The storied realms of exceptional longevity are scrutinised in this
volume. The vast majority of reputed centenarians in the past, and
most countries even today, lived less than 100 years. On the other
hand, the number of genuine long-livers is exploding and a
substantial proportion of current new-borns in developed countries
may survive to celebrate their 100th birthday. Extremely few of our
grandparents endured a century but centenarians may be commonplace
among our grandchildren. This volume explains and documents these
assertions, with research that melds judicious scepticism and
painstaking scholarship with intellectual excitement about the
advancing frontier of survival.
The history of longevity is a history of myths. This volume shows
that most reported instances of exceptional longevity are
incorrect. This was the rule everywhere until the end of the 19th
century and is still the case in the vast majority of countries. It
is only when reliable birth registrations are available for a
century or more and when reports of ages above 100 are
systematically checked against these data that the quality of
national statistics on exceptional longevity improves. Several
chapters of this volume provide further evidence that genuine
centenarians before 1800 were non-existent or at least extremely
rare. Sufficiently thorough attempts at verifying the maximal
duration of life in different periods of time have not been made.
Nonetheless, various gerontologists continue to make the
undocumented claim that the maximal duration of life is 110, 115 or
120 years, and that this maximal duration has not changed over the
course of human history. Unreliable reports of extreme ages in
various countries and at various times, including the present,
continue to be cited despite their implausibility and the lack of
firm evidence. This volume carries on the laborious work of
validating the ages of the few persons who may have been those who
have lived longest. While the research was in progress, three
exceptional long-livers died. These three were the long-livers whom
the contributors to this volume scrutinised more closely than any
alleged long-liver has ever been examined before. The three are
Jeanne Calment, who died on August 4, 1997 at the age of 122 years
and 5 months; Marie Louise Meilleur, who died on April 16, 1998 at
the age of 117 years and 7 months; and Christian Mortensen, who
died April 25, 1998 at the age of 115 years and 8 months.
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