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In this reexamination of Canada's balance of payments experience
under the gold standard, the authors develop and empirically test a
new portfolio approach to the mechanism of balance of payments
adjustment. This adjustment mechanism responded to massive inflows
of foreign capital during a critical period of Canada's economic
growth in the early years of this century. The authors show that
the existence of international mobility of capital requires a
fundamental revision of the price-specie-flow theory that has
traditionally been used to explain adjustment when the balance of
payments was more nearly dominated by the balance of trade. The
approach Professors Dick and Floyd take not only answers the
critics of Jacob Viner, who first explored the Canadian case after
1900, but also offers a new perspective on how the gold standard in
general actually worked. The authors apply standard elementary
economic principles to this working of the balance of payments
under the gold standard, making this book useful reading for those
studying intermediate and upper level economics, especially in the
field of international finance.
A careful basic theoretical and econometric analysis of the factors
determining the real exchange rates of Canada, the U.K., Japan,
France and Germany with respect to the United States is conducted.
The resulting conclusion is that real exchange rates are almost
entirely determined by real factors relating to growth and
technology such as oil and commodity prices, international
allocations of world investment across countries, and underlying
terms of trade changes. Unanticipated money supply shocks,
calculated in five alternative ways have virtually no effects. A
Blanchard-Quah VAR analysis also indicates that the effects of real
shocks predominate over monetary shocks by a wide margin. The
implications of these facts for the conduct of monetary policy in
countries outside the U.S. are then explored leading to the
conclusion that all countries, to avoid exchange rate overshooting,
have tended to automatically follow the same monetary policy as the
United States. The history of world monetary policy is reviewed
along with the determination of real exchange rates within the Euro
Area.
A careful basic theoretical and econometric analysis of the factors
determining the real exchange rates of Canada, the U.K., Japan,
France and Germany with respect to the United States is conducted.
The resulting conclusion is that real exchange rates are almost
entirely determined by real factors relating to growth and
technology such as oil and commodity prices, international
allocations of world investment across countries, and underlying
terms of trade changes. Unanticipated money supply shocks,
calculated in five alternative ways have virtually no effects. A
Blanchard-Quah VAR analysis also indicates that the effects of real
shocks predominate over monetary shocks by a wide margin. The
implications of these facts for the conduct of monetary policy in
countries outside the U.S. are then explored leading to the
conclusion that all countries, to avoid exchange rate overshooting,
have tended to automatically follow the same monetary policy as the
United States. The history of world monetary policy is reviewed
along with the determination of real exchange rates within the Euro
Area.
In this reexamination of Canada's balance of payments experience
under the gold standard, the authors develop and empirically test a
new portfolio approach to the mechanism of balance of payments
adjustment. This adjustment mechanism responded to massive inflows
of foreign capital during a critical period of Canada's economic
growth in the early years of this century. The authors show that
the existence of international mobility of capital requires a
fundamental revision of the price-specie-flow theory that has
traditionally been used to explain adjustment when the balance of
payments was more nearly dominated by the balance of trade. The
approach Professors Dick and Floyd take not only answers the
critics of Jacob Viner, who first explored the Canadian case after
1900, but also offers a new perspective on how the gold standard in
general actually worked. The authors apply standard elementary
economic principles to this working of the balance of payments
under the gold standard, making this book useful reading for those
studying intermediate and upper level economics, especially in the
field of international finance.
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