A critical yet constructive description of the rich analytical techniques and substantive applications that typify how statistical thinking has been applied at the RAND Corporation over the past two decades. Case studies of public policy problems are useful for teaching because they are familiar: almost everyone knows something abut health insurance, global warming, and capital punishment, to name but a few of the applications covered in this casebook. Each case study has a common format that describes the policy questions, the statistical questions, and the successful and the unsuccessful analytic strategies. Readers should be familiar with basic statistical concepts including sampling and regression. While designed for statistics courses in areas ranging from economics to health policy to the law at both the advanced undergraduate and graduate levels, empirical researchers and policy-makers will also find this casebook informative.

The Panel on Statistical Methods for Testing and Evaluating Defense Systems had a broad mandate-to examine the use of statistics in conjunction with defense testing. This involved examining methods for software testing, reliability test planning and estimation, validation of modeling and simulation, and use of modem techniques for experimental design. Given the breadth of these areas, including the great variety of applications and special issues that arise, making a contribution in each of these areas required that the Panel's work and recommendations be at a relatively general level. However, a variety of more specific research issues were either brought to the Panel's attention by members of the test and acquisition community, e.g., what was referred to as Dubin's challenge (addressed in the Panel's interim report), or were identified by members of the panel. In many of these cases the panel thought that a more in-depth analysis or a more detailed application of suggestions or recommendations made by the Panel would either be useful as input to its deliberations or could be used to help communicate more individual views of members of the Panel to the defense test community. This resulted in several research efforts. Given various criteria, especially immediate relevance to the test and acquisition community, the Panel has decided to make available three technical or background papers, each authored by a Panel member jointly with a colleague. These papers are individual contributions and are not a consensus product of the Panel; however, the Panel has drawn from these papers in preparation of its final report: Statistics, Testing, and Defense Acquisition. The Panel has found each of these papers to be extremely useful and they are strongly recommended to readers of the Panel's final report. Table of Contents Front Matter Strategic Information Generation and Transmission: The Evolution of Institutions in DoD Operational Testing On the Performance of Weibull Life Tests Based on Exponential Life Testing Designs Application of Statistical Science to Testing and Evaluating Software Intensive Systems

Ballistic Imaging assesses the state of computer-based imaging technology in forensic firearms identification. The book evaluates the current law enforcement database of images of crime-related cartridge cases and bullets and recommends ways to improve the usefulness of the technology for suggesting leads in criminal investigations. It also advises against the construction of a national reference database that would include images from test-fires of every newly manufactured or imported firearm in the United States. The book also suggests further research on an alternate method for generating an investigative lead to the location where a gun was first sold: "microstamping," the direct imprinting of unique identifiers on firearm parts or ammunition. Table of Contents Front Matter Executive Summary PART I: Context for Ballistic Imaging Analysis, 1 Introduction 2 Firearms and Ammunition: Physics, Manufacturing, and Sources of Variability 3 Firearms Identification and the Use of Ballistics Evidence PART II: Current Ballistic Imaging and Databases, 4 Current Ballistic Imaging Technology 5 Current Ballistic Image Databases: NIBIN and the State Reference Databases 6 Operational and Technical Enhancements to NIBIN 7 Three-Dimensional Measurement and Ballistic Imaging PART III: Implications for a National Reference Ballistic Image Database, 8 Experimental Evidence on Sources of Variability and Imaging Standards 9 Feasibility of a National Reference Ballistic Image Database PART IV: Future Directions, 10 Microstamping: Alternative Technology for Tracing to Point of Sale 11 Best Standards for Future Developments in Computer-Assisted Firearms Identification References Appendix A: Gun Enforcement and Ballistic Imaging Technology in Boston--Anthony A. Braga Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff