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One of the most enduring questions in economics involves how a
nation could accelerate the pace of its economic development. One
of the most enduring answers to this question is to promote exports
-either because doing so directly influences development via
encouraging production of goods for export, or because export
promotion permits accumulation of foreign exchange which permits
importation of high-quality goods and services, which can in turn
be used to expand the nation's production possibilities. In either
case, growth is said to be export-led; the latter case is the
so-called "two-gap" hypothesis (McKinnon, 1964; Findlay, 1973). The
early work on export-led growth consisted of static cross-country
com parisons (Michaely, 1977; Balassa, 1978; Tyler, 1981; Kormendi
and Meguire, 1985). These studies generally concluded that there is
strong evidence in favour of export-led growth because export
growth and income growth are highly correlated. However, Kravis
pointed out in 1970 that the question is an essen tially dynamic
one: as he put it, are exports the handmaiden or the engine of
growth? To make this determination one needs to look at time series
to see whether or not exports are driving income. This approach has
been taken in a number of papers (Jung and Marshall, 1985; Chow,
1987; Serletis, 1992; Kunst and Marin, 1989; Marin, 1992; Afxentiou
and Serletis, 1991), designed to assess whether or not individual
countries exhibit statistically significant evidence of export-led
growth using Granger causality tests."
One of the most enduring questions in economics involves how a
nation could accelerate the pace of its economic development. One
of the most enduring answers to this question is to promote exports
-either because doing so directly influences development via
encouraging production of goods for export, or because export
promotion permits accumulation of foreign exchange which permits
importation of high-quality goods and services, which can in turn
be used to expand the nation's production possibilities. In either
case, growth is said to be export-led; the latter case is the
so-called "two-gap" hypothesis (McKinnon, 1964; Findlay, 1973). The
early work on export-led growth consisted of static cross-country
com parisons (Michaely, 1977; Balassa, 1978; Tyler, 1981; Kormendi
and Meguire, 1985). These studies generally concluded that there is
strong evidence in favour of export-led growth because export
growth and income growth are highly correlated. However, Kravis
pointed out in 1970 that the question is an essen tially dynamic
one: as he put it, are exports the handmaiden or the engine of
growth? To make this determination one needs to look at time series
to see whether or not exports are driving income. This approach has
been taken in a number of papers (Jung and Marshall, 1985; Chow,
1987; Serletis, 1992; Kunst and Marin, 1989; Marin, 1992; Afxentiou
and Serletis, 1991), designed to assess whether or not individual
countries exhibit statistically significant evidence of export-led
growth using Granger causality tests."
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