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Suburbanization has led to the agglomeration of employment and
business activity at subcenters removed from the Central Business
District (CBD). To address the development of these subcenters in
the past half century, this study revises the Standard Urban Model
by: 1. Tracing historical origins and variations of the model over
the many millennia; 2. Developing a negative-exponential model of
agglomerative employment and business subcentering based on the
historical findings; and 3. Testing this model using a comparative
t-test and a Davidson-MacKinnon model-specification error test to
ascertain the existence and location of peak subcenter activity. On
average, the distances of the employment and sales peaks occur
midway between the CBD and the furthest Major Retail Centers. This
volume explores the development of the monocentric urban model.
Throughout the following chapters, the history of the concept, the
development of the general model, and the creation of a specific
model, which includes subcenters, are considered. Next, the
specific model is tested against business-census data for ten
radial monocentric cities in the United States. Results and
implications are reported. Finally, a survey of research that grew
out of the initial research and that has extended from the date of
the initial project through the present time is presented. Chapters
1 through 5 contain the development of the spine of the research.
Chapter 6 contains a brief of major research elements built upon
the spine. There has been an increase in agglomerative subcentering
over the past four decades in many large metropolitan areas. What
present society describes as urban sprawl or suburban flight may
simply be a natural process of urban-regional development,
consistent with monocentric urban thought and development extending
backwards in time for more than two millennia. By objective, the
theoretical work of this book emulates major monocentric models
developed over the past three millennia to develop an extended
mathematical model with agglomerative subcenters. Next, the
empirical work tests this extended model against observations of
Major Retail Centers (MRCs) for radially monocentric SMSAs. Through
a two-step econometric technique which includes a
model-specification error test, the results ascertain the existence
and locations of peak subcenter activity at an average of
approximately half the distance from the Central Business District
to the furthest MRC. This position concurs with Plato's ideal model
of Magnesia and other works of the past three millennia.
Fundamentally, the inspiration and intuition for this book comes
from a lifetime of oral and written cultural tradition. Building
upon this tradition, this work uses the historical chronicles and
analyses found in Chapter 2 to develop the theoretical model in
Chapter 3. In retrospect, the empirical Results, in Chapter 4,
support the theory of peak subcenter activity developed in Chapter
3.
In this first volume, we have focused on a number of major current
issues in the field of Urban Economics. Specifically, we have
addressed the economic upheaval and change facing Detroit, Michigan
during the decline of its industrial age and, most immediately, the
demise of the automotive industry-at least as we have known it.
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