Three kinds of people ought to read this book. Firstly there are those who use statistics in their work: accountants, scientists, advertisers, marketers, politicians and journalists. If you are in one of these categories I would like to help you to maintain, or aspire to, a reasonable standard of honesty and integrity, so that people can trust what you say, and so that you do not even inadvertently mislead yourself as well as others. Secondly there are cynics who think statistics can never be trusted and are just tools used by liars. I want to show that they can be used properly, and also that with a little thought, we can all learn to spot the false or exaggerated claims, the non-sequitors, and the unsubstantiated assumptions. Then we will be able to see the truth when it appears. Thirdly, there are the huge number of ordinary people who get totally confused and sometimes, sadly, misled, by statistics. I want to help you make sense of what you read or hear, and be able to be confident in sorting the facts from the hype. It is for this third group that this book is really written. If the other two groups benefit, I will be glad, but if you are in this group, please read on. I hope you will enjoy it, but above all I hope it will empower you.

If you think risk management is a bit of meaningless management-speak, this is the book for you. The world is full of risks and they all need managing. In fact, we all manage risks all the time whether well or badly. Every decision we make involves making some assessment of the risks involved. Risk management is simply an attempt at doing it more explicitly, scientifically and, hopefully, effectively. In this book, readers will learn more about the whys and hows of risk management, and examples of how not to do it. I have tried to explain it in everyday language and show how it can be applied in a small business to your advantage.