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How can we predict and explain the phenomena of nature? What are
the limits to this knowledge process? The central issues of
prediction, explanation, and mathematical modeling, which underlie
all scientific activity, were the focus of a conference organized
by the Swedish Council for the Planning and Coordination of
Research, held at the Abisko Research Station in May of 1989. At
this forum, a select group of internationally known scientists in
physics, chemistry, biology, economics, sociology and mathematics
discussed and debated the ways in which prediction and explanation
interact with mathematical modeling in their respective areas of
expertise. Beyond Belief is the result of this forum, consisting of
11 chapters written specifically for this volume. The multiple
themes of randomness, uncertainty, prediction and explanation are
presented using (as vehicles) several topical areas from modern
science, such as morphogenetic fields, Boscovich covariance, and
atmospheric variability. This multidisciplinary examination of the
foundational issues of modern scientific thought and methodology
will offer stimulating reading for a very broad scientific
audience.
"Mood Matters" makes the radical assertion that all social events
ranging from fashions in music and art to the rise and fall of
civilizations are biased by the attitudes a society holds toward
the future. When the "social mood" is positive and people look
forward to the future, events of an entirely different character
tend to occur than when society is pessimistic. The book presents
many examples from every walk of life in support of this argument.
In addition, methods are given to actually measure the social mood
and to project it into the future in order to forecast what's
likely or not over varying periods of time. Casti's writing is a
pleasure to read and its contents an eye-opener. "They [the
chapters] tell an engrossing story, and the mystery heightens as it
goes. . . . it's chatty and knowing." Greg Benford, Physicist and
science-fiction writer, author of "Timescape" and "Deep Time" "I am
struck by how thought-provoking it all is. I am sure that your book
will draw a lot of attention" Tor Norretranders, Science writer,
author of "The Generous Man" and "The User Illusion".
In May 1984 the Swedish Council for Scientific Research convened a
small group of investigators at the scientific research station at
Abisko, Sweden, for the purpose of examining various conceptual and
mathematical views of the evolution of complex systems. The stated
theme of the meeting was deliberately kept vague, with only the
purpose of discussing alternative mathematically based approaches
to the modeling of evolving processes being given as a guideline to
the participants. In order to limit the scope to some degree, it
was decided to emphasize living rather than nonliving processes and
to invite participants from a range of disciplinary specialities
spanning the spectrum from pure and applied mathematics to
geography and analytic philosophy. The results of the meeting were
quite extraordinary; while there was no intent to focus the papers
and discussion into predefined channels, an immediate
self-organizing effect took place and the deliberations quickly
oriented themselves into three main streams: conceptual and formal
structures for characterizing sys tem complexity; evolutionary
processes in biology and ecology; the emergence of complexity
through evolution in natural lan guages. The chapters presented in
this volume are not the proceed ings of the meeting. Following the
meeting, the organizers felt that the ideas and spirit of the
gathering should be preserved in some written form, so the
participants were each requested to produce a chapter, explicating
the views they presented at Abisko, written specifically for this
volume. The results of this exercise form the volume you hold in
your hand."
Since the beginning of the fifties, the ruling paradigm in the
discipline of economics has been that of a competitive general
equilibrium. Associated dynamic analyses have therefore been
preoccupied with the stability of this equilibrium state,
corresponding simply to studies of comparative statics. The need to
permeate the boundaries of this paradigm in order to open up new
pathways for genuine dynamic analysis is now pressing. The
contributions contained in this volume spring from this very
ambition. A growing circle of economists have recently been
inspired by two distinct but complementary sources: (i) the
pathbreaking work of Joseph Schumpeter, and (ii) recent
contributions to physics, chemistry and theoretical biology. It
turns out that problems which are firmly rooted in the economic
discipline, such as innovation, technological change, business
cycles and economic development, contain many clear parallels with
phenomena from the natural sciences such as the slaving principle,
adiabatic elimination and self-organization. In such dynamic
worlds, adjustment processes and adaptive behaviour are modelled
with the aid of the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamical
systems. The dynamics is defined for a much wider set of conditions
or states than simply a set of competitive equilibria. A common
objective is to study and classify ways in which the qualitative
properties of each system change as the parameters describing the
system vary.
By the author of The Cambridge Quintet, John L. Casti's new book
continues the tradition of combining science fact with just the
right dose of fiction. Part novel, part science ? wholly
informative and entertaining. In the fall of 1933 the newly founded
Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey, welcomed its
first faculty member, Albert Einstein. With this superstar on the
roster, the Institute was able to attract many more of the greatest
scholars, scientists, and poets from around the world. It was to be
an intellectual haven, a place where the most brilliant minds on
the planet, sheltered from the outside world's cares and
calamities, could study and collaborate and devote their time to
the pure and exclusive pursuit of knowledge. For many of them, it
was the "one, true, platonic heaven." Over the years, key figures
at the Institute began to question the limits to what science could
tell us about the world, pondering the universal secrets it might
unlock. Could science be the ultimate source of truth; or are there
intrinsic limits, built into the very fabric of the universe, to
what we can learn? In the late 1940's and early 1950's, this
important question was being asked and pondered upon by some of the
Institute's deepest thinkers. Enter the dramatis personae to
illuminate the science and the philosophy of the time. Mathematical
logician Kurt Godel was the unacknowledged Grant Exalted Ruler of
this platonic estate ? but he was a ruler without a scepter as he
awaited the inexplicably indefinite postponement of his promotion
to full, tenured professor. Also in residence was his colleague,
the Hungarian-American polymath, John van Neumann, developer of
game theory, the axiomatic foundations of quantum mechanics, and
the digital computer ? stymied by the Institute's refusal to
sanction his bold proposal to actually build a computer. One of
Godel's closest friends figures large in this story: Albert
Einstein, by common consensus the greatest physicist the 20th
century had ever known. And, of course, the director the Institute,
J. Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, must by
necessity be key to any story that focuses in on this time and
place. Author Casti elegantly sets the stage and then masterfully
directs this impressive cast of characters?with able assists by
many "minor-character" icons like T. S. Eliot, Wolfgang Pauli,
Freeman Dyson, and David Bohm, to tell a story of science, history,
and ideas. As we watch events unfold (some of which are documented
fact while others are creatively imagined fiction), we are witness
to the discussions and deliberations of this august group? privy to
wide-ranging conversations on thinking machines, quantum logic,
biology as physics, weather forecasting, the structure of economic
systems, the distinction between mathematics and natural science,
the structure of the universe, and the powers of the human mind ?
all centered around the question of the limits to scientific
knowledge. Imaginatively conceived and artfully executed, The One
True Platonic Heaven is an accessible and intriguing presentation
of some of the deepest scientific and philosophical ideas of the
20th century. Table of Contents Front Matter Prologue Chapter One:
A Walk Down Mercer Street Chapter Two: Teatime at the IAS Chapter
Three: Goodtime Johnny Chapter Four: Goedel at the Blackboard
Chapter Five: The Boardroom Chapter Six: Late-Night Thoughts of the
Greatest Physicist Chapter Seven: An Evening at Olden Manor Chapter
Eight: The Verdicts Epilogue
Der Lebensnerv aller intellektuellen und wissenschaftlichen
Bestrebungen ist der standige Zustrom wichtiger, ungeloester, aber
im Prinzip loesbarer Probleme. Die projektive Geometrie zum
Beispiel war fruher eine bluhende Ecke im mathemati schen Garten.
Heute jedoch ist sie nicht mehr modern - einfach weil die Quelle
wichtiger Probleme vor etwa hundert Jahren versiegte. Fur die heute
so populare Chaostheorie dagegen interessierte sich vor einigen
Jahrzehnten nur eine Handvoll weitsichtiger Abenteurer und Kenner
des mathematisch Geheimnisvollen, bevor in jungerer Zeit die
Arbeiten von Lorenz, Smale, Feigenbaum, Yorke, May, Roessler und
vielen anderen eine Fulle von Problemen aufwarfen, mit denen sich
heutzutage die Chaologen, ihre Studenten und ihre Mitlaufer
beschaftigen. Diese Beispiele illustrieren deutlich George P6lyas
wohlbekannte These, die Mathematik sei die Kunst des
Problemloesens. Aber im Gegensatz zu Wissenschaftlern aus anderen
Disziplinen benutzen die Mathematiker einen speziellen Ausdruck fur
die Loesung ihrer Probleme: Bei ihnen heisst er Theorem. Die
Mathematik handelt von Theoremen: wie man auf sie kommt, wie man
sie beweist, wie man sie verallgemeinert, wie man sie anwendet und
wie man sie versteht. Die grossen Funfmoechte dem Leser die
Mathematik naherbringen, indem es funf der wichtigsten
Errungenschaften der Mathematik unseres Jahrhunderts vorstellt. In
diesem Buch werden Sie einige der groessten Probleme, die die Mathe
matik geloest hat, kennenlernen. Ich moechte Ihnen zeigen, wie sie
geloest wurden, und vor allem, warum die Loesungen von Bedeutung
sind - und dies nicht nur fur Mathematiker. Die grossen
Funfwilllehrreich und unterhaltsam sein; das Buch will Mathematik
anhand von Beispielen und nicht von Lehrbuchsatzen vermitteln.
In this narrative tour de force, gifted scientist and author John
L. Casti contemplates an imaginary evening of intellectual
inquiry--a sort of "My Dinner with" not Andre, but five of the most
brilliant thinkers of the twentieth century.Imagine, if you will,
one stormy summer evening in 1949, as novelist and scientist C. P.
Snow, Britain's distinguished wartime science advisor and author of
"The Two Cultures," invites four singular guests to a sumptuous
seven-course dinner at his alma mater, Christ's College, Cambridge,
to discuss one of the emerging scientific issues of the day: Can we
build a machine that could duplicate human cognitive processes? The
distinguished guest list for Snow's dinner consists of physicist
Erwin Schrodinger, inventor of wave mechanics; Ludwig Wittgenstein,
the famous twentieth-century philosopher of language, who posited
two completely contradictory theories of human thought in his
lifetime; population geneticist/science popularizer J.B.S. Haldane;
and Alan Turing, the mathematician/codebreaker who formulated the
computing scheme that foreshadowed the logical structure of all
modern computers. Capturing not only their unique personalities but
also their particular stands on this fascinating issue, Casti
dramatically shows what each of these great men might have argued
about artificial intelligence, had they actually gathered for
dinner that midsummer evening.With Snow acting as referee, a lively
intellectual debate unfolds. Philosopher Wittgenstein argues that
in order to become conscious, a machine would have to have life
experiences similar to those of human beings--such as pain, joy,
grief, or pleasure. Biologist Haldane offers the idea that mind is
aseparate entity from matter, so that regardless of how
sophisticated the machine, only flesh can bond with that mysterious
force called intelligence. Both physicist Schrodinger and, of
course, computer pioneer Turing maintain that it is not the
substance, but rather the organization of that substance, that
makes a mind conscious.With great verve and skill, Casti recreates
a unique and thrilling moment of time in the grand history of
scientific ideas. Even readers who have already formed an opinion
on artificial intelligence will be forced to reopen their minds on
the subject upon reading this absorbing narrative. After almost
four decades, the solutions to the epic scientific and
philosophical problems posed over this meal in C. P. Snow's old
rooms at Christ's College remains tantalizingly just out of reach,
making this adventure into scientific speculation as valid today as
it was in 1949.
Der Lebensnerv aller intellektuellen und wissenschaftlichen
Bestrebungen ist der standige Zustrom wichtiger, ungeloester, aber
im Prinzip loesbarer Probleme. Die projektive Geometrie zum
Beispiel war fruher eine bluhende Ecke im mathemati schen Garten.
Heute jedoch ist sie nicht mehr modern - einfach weil die Quelle
wichtiger Probleme vor etwa hundert Jahren versiegte. Fur die heute
so populare Chaostheorie dagegen interessierte sich vor einigen
Jahrzehnten nur eine Handvoll weitsichtiger Abenteurer und Kenner
des mathematisch Geheimnisvollen, bevor in jungerer Zeit die
Arbeiten von Lorenz, Smale, Feigenbaum, Yorke, May, Roessler und
vielen anderen eine Fulle von Problemen aufwarfen, mit denen sich
heutzutage die Chaologen, ihre Studenten und ihre Mitlaufer
beschaftigen. Diese Beispiele illustrieren deutlich George P6lyas
wohlbekannte These, die Mathematik sei die Kunst des
Problemloesens. Aber im Gegensatz zu Wissenschaftlern aus anderen
Disziplinen benutzen die Mathematiker einen speziellen Ausdruck fur
die Loesung ihrer Probleme: Bei ihnen heisst er Theorem. Die
Mathematik handelt von Theoremen: wie man auf sie kommt, wie man
sie beweist, wie man sie verallgemeinert, wie man sie anwendet und
wie man sie versteht. Die grossen Funfmoechte dem Leser die
Mathematik naherbringen, indem es funf der wichtigsten
Errungenschaften der Mathematik unseres Jahrhunderts vorstellt. In
diesem Buch werden Sie einige der groessten Probleme, die die Mathe
matik geloest hat, kennenlernen. Ich moechte Ihnen zeigen, wie sie
geloest wurden, und vor allem, warum die Loesungen von Bedeutung
sind - und dies nicht nur fur Mathematiker. Die grossen
Funfwilllehrreich und unterhaltsam sein; das Buch will Mathematik
anhand von Beispielen und nicht von Lehrbuchsatzen vermitteln.
The modern industrialized world is a complex system on a scale
never before witnessed in the history of humankind. Technologically
dependent, globally interconnected, it offers seemingly limitless
conveniences, choices, and opportunities. Yet this same modern
civilization is as unstable as a house of cards, fear complexity
scientists like John L. Casti. All it would take to downsize our
way of life-to send us crashing back to the 19th century way of
life-is a nudge from what Casti calls an X-Event, an unpredictable
occurrence that with extreme, even dire, consequences. When an
X-Event strikes - and scientists believe it will-finance,
communication, defense, and travel will stop dead in their tracks.
The flow of food, electricity, medicine, and clean water will be
disrupted for months, if not years. What will you do? A renowned
systems theorist, Casti shows how our world has become impossibly
complicated, relying on ever more advanced technology that is
developing at an exponential rate. Yet it is a fact of mathematical
life that higher and higher levels of complexity lead to a system
that's ever more fragile and susceptible to sudden, spectacular
collapse. Fascinating and chilling, "X-Events" provides a
provocative tour of the catastrophic outlier scenarios that could
quickly send us crashing back to the pre-industrial age: global
financial black swans; a world-wide crash of the Internet that
would halt all communication; the end of oil; nuclear winter;
nano-plagues; robot uprisings; electromagnetic-pulse bombs;
pandemic viruses; and more. You won't look at the world the same
way again after reading this book.
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