|
Showing 1 - 1 of
1 matches in All Departments
Tropical cyclone intensity techniques developed by Dvorak have thus
far been regarded by tropical meteorologists as the best
identification and forecast schemes available using satellite
imagery. However, in recent years, several ideologies have arisen
which discuss alternative means of determining typhoon rapid
intensification or weakening in the Pacific. These theories include
examining channel outflow patterns, potential vorticity
superposition and anomalies, tropical upper tropospheric trough
interactions, environmental influences, and upper tropospheric flow
transitions. It is now possible to data mine these atmospheric
parameters thought partly responsible for typhoon rapid
intensification and weakening to validate their usefulness in the
forecast process. Using the latest data mining software tools, this
study used components of NOGAPS analyses along with selected
atmospheric and climatological predictors in classification
analyses to create conditional forecast decision trees. The results
of the classification model show an approximate R2 of 0.68 with
percent error misclassifications of 13.5% for rapidly weakening
typhoon events and 21.8% for rapidly intensifying typhoon events.
In addition, a merged set of suggested forecast splitting rules was
developed. By using the three most accurate predictors from both
intensifying and weakening storms, the results validate the notion
that multiple parameters are responsible for rapid changes in
typhoon development.
|
You may like...
Tenet
John David Washington, Robert Pattinson, …
DVD
R53
Discovery Miles 530
Loot
Nadine Gordimer
Paperback
(2)
R398
R330
Discovery Miles 3 300
|
Email address subscribed successfully.
A activation email has been sent to you.
Please click the link in that email to activate your subscription.