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as this paper goes to press, Iran has just come through its
longanticipated presidential election. despite predictions of a
victory for a well-known clerical "moderate," former president and
expediency council head akhbar hashemi-rafsanjani, the winner was
the hard-line conservative mayor of tehran, Mahmoud ahmadinejad, a
relative unknown. the terms hard-liner and conservative are used
virtually interchangeably by many inside and outside Iran; they are
relative terms, since there are no political parties in Iran, with
their meaning dependent on context and issue. the election
consolidated control of all branches of the Iranian
government-legislative, executive, and judicial-in conservative
hands. It also brought to the presidency for the first time in the
republic's history a non-cleric who ran a populist-style campaign
attacking corruption and non-Islamic practices that had crept into
government since the death of the ayatollah Khomeini in 1989.
Scholars and other specialists on Iran have argued about that
country's political intentions and strategic ambitions since the
overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of
the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. In the 1980's Iran's efforts
to export its revolution and support international terrorism raised
the question of whether a moderate Islamic republic that was able
to deal with the West could ever exist. This book analyzes the
implications of a Nuclear-armed Iran.
This volume was begun in 1999, when the National Intelligence
Council asked the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the
National Defense University to examine change in the middle east.
At that time, little political change had occurred in the region in
30 years. Except when a revolution occurred in 1979.
This collection of analyses on the unintended consequences of
Iran's nuclear policy for its domestic and international relations
is the first in a series of papers that will examine the impact of
critical issues and developments on key countries in the Greater
Middle East and on U.S. security interests. Succeeding papers will
identify similar emerging issues in Turkey, Iraq, Yemen, and the
Persian Gulf region. For the most part, the papers will represent
the independent research and opinions of academic scholars and
regional experts prepared for and presented at the National Defense
University.
CONTENTS: Preface, Acknowledgments, Iran's World View and NBC
Weapons, A Walk on the Supply Side, The Regional Impact, Creating
Better Policy Options, Endnotes
CONTENTS: Preface The Middle East in 2015: An Overview Algeria: Can
National Order Be Restored? Morocco: Will Tradition Protect the
Monarchy Egypt: Could It Lead the Arab World? Israel: Reconciling
Internal Disparities? Palestine: Moving toward a Democratic State?
Iran: Can the Islamic Republic Survive? Iraq: Another Saddam on the
Horizon? The Arab Gulf: Will Autocracy Define the Social Contract
in 2015? Arms Control: In the Region's Future? Conclusion: Three
Parts of the Whole Israel-Turkey: Strategic Relationship or
Temporary Alliance? About the Editor
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