as this paper goes to press, Iran has just come through its longanticipated presidential election. despite predictions of a victory for a well-known clerical "moderate," former president and expediency council head akhbar hashemi-rafsanjani, the winner was the hard-line conservative mayor of tehran, Mahmoud ahmadinejad, a relative unknown. the terms hard-liner and conservative are used virtually interchangeably by many inside and outside Iran; they are relative terms, since there are no political parties in Iran, with their meaning dependent on context and issue. the election consolidated control of all branches of the Iranian government-legislative, executive, and judicial-in conservative hands. It also brought to the presidency for the first time in the republic's history a non-cleric who ran a populist-style campaign attacking corruption and non-Islamic practices that had crept into government since the death of the ayatollah Khomeini in 1989.

Scholars and other specialists on Iran have argued about that country's political intentions and strategic ambitions since the overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. In the 1980's Iran's efforts to export its revolution and support international terrorism raised the question of whether a moderate Islamic republic that was able to deal with the West could ever exist. This book analyzes the implications of a Nuclear-armed Iran.

This volume was begun in 1999, when the National Intelligence Council asked the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University to examine change in the middle east. At that time, little political change had occurred in the region in 30 years. Except when a revolution occurred in 1979.

This collection of analyses on the unintended consequences of Iran's nuclear policy for its domestic and international relations is the first in a series of papers that will examine the impact of critical issues and developments on key countries in the Greater Middle East and on U.S. security interests. Succeeding papers will identify similar emerging issues in Turkey, Iraq, Yemen, and the Persian Gulf region. For the most part, the papers will represent the independent research and opinions of academic scholars and regional experts prepared for and presented at the National Defense University.

CONTENTS: Preface, Acknowledgments, Iran's World View and NBC Weapons, A Walk on the Supply Side, The Regional Impact, Creating Better Policy Options, Endnotes

CONTENTS: Preface The Middle East in 2015: An Overview Algeria: Can National Order Be Restored? Morocco: Will Tradition Protect the Monarchy Egypt: Could It Lead the Arab World? Israel: Reconciling Internal Disparities? Palestine: Moving toward a Democratic State? Iran: Can the Islamic Republic Survive? Iraq: Another Saddam on the Horizon? The Arab Gulf: Will Autocracy Define the Social Contract in 2015? Arms Control: In the Region's Future? Conclusion: Three Parts of the Whole Israel-Turkey: Strategic Relationship or Temporary Alliance? About the Editor