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The recent rise in global demand for energy and the resulting spike
in energy prices have illustrated just how important Middle Eastern
energy exports are. This book, the first on the subject since the
hike in energy prices impacted the global energy market, outlines
the current facts that shape the ability of Middle Eastern
producers to supply energy exports. It explores the possible future
causes both of major interruptions in supply, and of failures to
maintain and expand export capacity, and, though it does not
predict a major energy crisis, it does describe a range of factors
that could produce one. The recent rise in global demand for energy
and the resulting spike in energy prices have illustrated just how
important Middle Eastern energy exports are. This book, the first
on the subject since the hike in energy prices impacted the global
energy market, outlines current facts that shape the ability of
Middle Eastern producers to supply energy exports. It explores the
possible future causes both of major interruptions in supply, and
failures to maintain and expand export capacity, and, though it
does not predict a major energy crisis, it does describe factors
that could produce one. Authors Cordesman and Al-Rodhan analyze the
plans of each country in the region, compare those plans with the
forecasting models of international organizations, and study each
country's prospects for stability. They also analyze how importing
countries such as the United States, Europe, China, and India are
dealing with the changing nature of global dependence upon MENA
oil. Offering the most comprehensive data on current energy
resources, production capacities estimates, import dependence, and
national plans and strategies, The Changing Dynamics of Energy in
the Middle East analyzes current energy modeling, and shows how the
lack of supply-driven models has had a negative impact on the
understanding of policy makers and strategic thinkers. The book
concludes its analysis with possible strategic, economic, and
demographic scenarios for the Middle East, projecting the impact of
each scenario on future energy developments.
The significance of the Persian Gulf to international peace and
security and to the global energy market cannot be overstated.
Events such as the attacks of September 11 and the rise in energy
demand and prices have only highlighted the importance of stability
in the Gulf to the health of the global economy. This book
demonstrates that the nature of military and political threats in
the Gulf states (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Yemen,
and the UAE) has shifted during the past three years. Although the
threat from Saddam Hussein's Iraq, which produced three recent,
major conventional wars-Iran-Iraq (1980-88), Persian Gulf (1990),
and Iraq (2003)-has largely disappeared, it has been replaced by
concerns over the asymmetric warfare conducted by terrorist
organizations and over the proliferation of WMDs by both states and
terrorists. These developments are affecting the defense planning
and strategic posture of each country, and this book analyzes
developments in the force structures of the Gulf states and their
ability to deal with this shift in the nature of the threat. The
military and security forces of the Gulf states must evolve to
adapt to the changing nature of the threat and take into account
the risk of the Iraqi insurgency and the uncertainty surrounding
Iraq's future. The key areas covered in this book include the
internal terrorist threat to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states; the
impact of Iran's nuclear program and the risk it poses to energy
and internal security in the Gulf area; and border disputes within
the region that could develop into conflict. In addition, the book
studies the impact of the Iraq War on regional security and the
fear of the insurgencyspilling over into neighboring states.
Cordesman and Al-Rodhan demonstrate a shift toward using internal
security services to deal with the threat of extremism and
asymmetric warfare. They also suggest that high energy prices and
export revenues provide the Gulf countries the opportunity to
upgrade their military forces and deal with their
undercapitalization as a result of low oil prices in the 1990s.
Moreover, they insist that the future of Iraq, the strategic and
nuclear posture of Iran, and the terrorist threat will remain major
risks and uncertainties in the short to medium run.
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