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Uncertainty, Modelling, and Decision Making in Geotechnics shows
how uncertainty quantification and numerical modeling can
complement each other to enhance decision making in geotechnical
practice, filling a critical gap in guiding practitioners to
address uncertainties directly. The book helps practitioners
acquire a working knowledge of geotechnical risk and reliability
methods and guides them to use these methods wisely in conjunction
with data and numerical modeling. In particular, it provides
guidance on the selection of realistic statistics and a
cost-effective, accessible method to address different design
objectives, and for different problem settings, and illustrates the
value of this to decision making using realistic examples. Bringing
together statistical characterization, reliability analysis,
reliability-based design, probabilistic inverse analysis, and
physical insights drawn from case studies, this reference guide
from an international team of experts offers an excellent resource
for state-of-the-practice uncertainty-informed geotechnical design
for specialist practitioners and the research community.
Model Uncertainties in Foundation Design is unique in the
compilation of the largest and the most diverse load test databases
to date, covering many foundation types (shallow foundations,
spudcans, driven piles, drilled shafts, rock sockets and helical
piles) and a wide range of ground conditions (soil to soft rock).
All databases with names prefixed by NUS are available upon
request. This book presents a comprehensive evaluation of the model
factor mean (bias) and coefficient of variation (COV) for ultimate
and serviceability limit state based on these databases. These
statistics can be used directly for AASHTO LRFD calibration.
Besides load test databases, performance databases for other
geo-structures and their model factor statistics are provided.
Based on this extensive literature survey, a practical three-tier
scheme for classifying the model uncertainty of geo-structures
according to the model factor mean and COV is proposed. This
empirically grounded scheme can underpin the calibration of
resistance factors as a function of the degree of understanding - a
concept already adopted in the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code
and being considered for the new draft for Eurocode 7 Part 1 (EN
1997-1:202x). The helical pile research in Chapter 7 was recognised
by the 2020 ASCE Norman Medal.
Establishes Geotechnical Reliability as Fundamentally Distinct from
Structural Reliability Reliability-based design is relatively well
established in structural design. Its use is less mature in
geotechnical design, but there is a steady progression towards
reliability-based design as seen in the inclusion of a new Annex D
on "Reliability of Geotechnical Structures" in the third edition of
ISO 2394. Reliability-based design can be viewed as a simplified
form of risk-based design where different consequences of failure
are implicitly covered by the adoption of different target
reliability indices. Explicit risk management methodologies are
required for large geotechnical systems where soil and loading
conditions are too varied to be conveniently slotted into a few
reliability classes (typically three) and an associated simple
discrete tier of target reliability indices. Provides Realistic
Practical Guidance Risk and Reliability in Geotechnical Engineering
makes these reliability and risk methodologies more accessible to
practitioners and researchers by presenting soil statistics which
are necessary inputs, by explaining how calculations can be carried
out using simple tools, and by presenting illustrative or actual
examples showcasing the benefits and limitations of these
methodologies.With contributions from a broad international group
of authors, this text: Presents probabilistic models suited for
soil parameters Provides easy-to-use Excel-based methods for
reliability analysis Connects reliability analysis to design codes
(including LRFD and Eurocode 7) Maximizes value of information
using Bayesian updating Contains efficient reliability analysis
methods Accessible To a Wide Audience Risk and Reliability in
Geotechnical Engineering presents all the "need-to-know"
information for a non-specialist to calculate and interpret the
reliability index and risk of geotechnical structures in a
realistic and robust way. It suits engineers, researchers, and
students who are interested in the practical outcomes of
reliability and risk analyses without going into the intricacies of
the underlying mathematical theories.
Establishes Geotechnical Reliability as Fundamentally Distinct from
Structural Reliability Reliability-based design is relatively well
established in structural design. Its use is less mature in
geotechnical design, but there is a steady progression towards
reliability-based design as seen in the inclusion of a new Annex D
on "Reliability of Geotechnical Structures" in the third edition of
ISO 2394. Reliability-based design can be viewed as a simplified
form of risk-based design where different consequences of failure
are implicitly covered by the adoption of different target
reliability indices. Explicit risk management methodologies are
required for large geotechnical systems where soil and loading
conditions are too varied to be conveniently slotted into a few
reliability classes (typically three) and an associated simple
discrete tier of target reliability indices. Provides Realistic
Practical Guidance Risk and Reliability in Geotechnical Engineering
makes these reliability and risk methodologies more accessible to
practitioners and researchers by presenting soil statistics which
are necessary inputs, by explaining how calculations can be carried
out using simple tools, and by presenting illustrative or actual
examples showcasing the benefits and limitations of these
methodologies.With contributions from a broad international group
of authors, this text: Presents probabilistic models suited for
soil parameters Provides easy-to-use Excel-based methods for
reliability analysis Connects reliability analysis to design codes
(including LRFD and Eurocode 7) Maximizes value of information
using Bayesian updating Contains efficient reliability analysis
methods Accessible To a Wide Audience Risk and Reliability in
Geotechnical Engineering presents all the "need-to-know"
information for a non-specialist to calculate and interpret the
reliability index and risk of geotechnical structures in a
realistic and robust way. It suits engineers, researchers, and
students who are interested in the practical outcomes of
reliability and risk analyses without going into the intricacies of
the underlying mathematical theories.
Reliability-based design is the only engineering methodology
currently available which can ensure self-consistency in both
physical and probabilistic terms, and which is compatible with the
theoretical basis underlying other disciplines such as structural
design. It is especially relevant as geotechnical design becomes
subject to increasing codification and to code harmonization across
national boundaries and material types. Already some codes of
practice describe the principles and requirements for safety,
serviceability, and durability of structures in reliability terms.
A major challenge is to encourage geotechnical engineers to apply
reliability-based design in a realistic context that recognises the
complex variabilities in geomaterials and model uncertainties
arising from a profession steeped in empiricism.This book presents
practical computational methods in concrete steps that can be
followed by practitioners and students. It also provides
geotechnical examples illustrating reliability analyses and design.
By focusing on learning through computations and examples, this
book serves as a valuable reference for engineers and a resource
for students.
Model Uncertainties in Foundation Design is unique in the
compilation of the largest and the most diverse load test databases
to date, covering many foundation types (shallow foundations,
spudcans, driven piles, drilled shafts, rock sockets and helical
piles) and a wide range of ground conditions (soil to soft rock).
All databases with names prefixed by NUS are available upon
request. This book presents a comprehensive evaluation of the model
factor mean (bias) and coefficient of variation (COV) for ultimate
and serviceability limit state based on these databases. These
statistics can be used directly for AASHTO LRFD calibration.
Besides load test databases, performance databases for other
geo-structures and their model factor statistics are provided.
Based on this extensive literature survey, a practical three-tier
scheme for classifying the model uncertainty of geo-structures
according to the model factor mean and COV is proposed. This
empirically grounded scheme can underpin the calibration of
resistance factors as a function of the degree of understanding - a
concept already adopted in the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code
and being considered for the new draft for Eurocode 7 Part 1 (EN
1997-1:202x). The helical pile research in Chapter 7 was recognised
by the 2020 ASCE Norman Medal.
Reliability-based design is the only engineering methodology
currently available which can ensure self-consistency in both
physical and probabilistic terms. It is also uniquely compatible
with the theoretical basis underlying other disciplines such as
structural design. It is especially relevant as geotechnical design
becomes subject to increasing codification and to code
harmonization across national boundaries and material types.
Already some codes of practice describe the principles and
requirements for safety, serviceability, and durability of
structures in reliability terms. This book presents practical
computational methods in concrete steps that can be followed by
practitioners and students. It also provides geotechnical examples
illustrating reliability analysis and design. It aims to encourage
geotechnical engineers to apply reliability-based design in a
realistic context that recognises the complex variabilities in
geomaterials and model uncertainties arising from a profession
steeped in empiricism. By focusing on learning through computations
and examples, this book serves as a valuable reference for
engineers and a resource for students.
Foundation Engineering in the Face of Uncertainty, GSP 229, honours
Fred H. Kulhawy, Ph.D., P.E., G.E., Dist.M.ASCE, for his many
contributions advancing the science, art, teaching, and practice of
geotechnical engineering. Dr. Kulhawy has influenced the civil
engineering profession worldwide with his willingness to share his
knowledge and expertise in many areas of geotechnical engineering
including soil and rock mechanics, foundation engineering, and
engineering geology. This collection contains 54 papers that
explore uncertainty in foundation engineering, including
characterisation of soil parameters, spatial variability,
uncertainty and risk analyses, reliability analysis, and
reliability-based design. Seventeen papers are reprints of classic
papers authored or co-authored by Dr. Kulhawy, and 37 invited
technical papers are contributions by experts from around the
world, which also include informative case histories. Foundation
Engineering in the Face of Uncertainty contains practical and
technical information on risk and reliability in foundation
engineering that will be of interest to geotechnical engineers,
foundation specialists, engineering geologists, and researchers.
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