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This book is the first comprehensive presentation of a Kaiyu Markov
model with covariates and a multivariate Poisson model with
competitive destinations. These two models are core techniques when
the authors and colleagues conduct their Kaiyu studies. The two
models are usually used to forecast the effects of specific urban
redevelopment on both the number of visitors and consumer
shop-around or Kaiyu movements. Their Kaiyu studies originated from
the constructions of a Kaiyu Markov model and the disaggregated
hierarchical decision Huff model almost simultaneously around the
early 1980s. This book retrospectively reviews how these models
have evolved from the start to the present state, and previews the
ongoing efforts to make further extensions of these models. The
extension of the Huff model started from the disaggregated
hierarchical decision Huff model with shop-arounds. In retrospect,
the model formulated the consumer’s simultaneous choice of
destinations as a joint probability. The mechanism to determine
this joint probability was a recursive conditional probability
system. Now the Huff model has shifted from joint probability to
multivariate frequency Poisson with competitive destinations. On
the other hand, the Kaiyu Markov model started from a descriptive
model. Because it cannot forecast changes in shop-arounds or
consumer Kaiyu behaviors, the Kaiyu Markov model with covariates
was developed in which entrance and shop-around choice
probabilities are explained by the respective two logit models with
covariates such as distances and shop-floor areas. The noticeable
point is that it can explain consumers’ probability of quitting
their shop-arounds. Thus, the model enables one to evaluate the
effects of urban revitalization policy that promotes consumers’
shop-arounds or Kaiyu behaviors. Furthermore, if the Kaiyu Markov
model can estimate the actual numbers of flows of consumers’
shop-arounds among shopping sites, the corresponding money flows
also can be estimated as economic effects. This book discusses from
scratch the evolution of all these topics. Thus this book provides
the basics of the Kaiyu Markov model, a tutorial for the theory and
estimation of the conditional logit model, and a chapter serving as
a practical research manual for forecasting changes caused by urban
development based on consumers’ Kaiyu behaviors.
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