Includes chapters that provide context for statistical testimony by expert witnesses Includes chapters that describe relevant statistical methodology Includes chapters applying statistical methodology to specific areas of forensic science

Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. Focuses on the recent subfield of decision analysis, ARA Compares ideas from decision theory and game theory Uses multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) throughout to help readers visualize complex information structures Applies the ARA approach to simultaneous games, auctions, sequential games, and defend-attack games Contains an extended case study based on a real application in railway security, which provides a blueprint for how to perform ARA in similar security situations Includes exercises at the end of most chapters, with selected solutions at the back of the book The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on all unknown quantities. This produces a distribution over the actions of the opponent and enables analysts to maximize their expected utilities.

Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science was commissioned in 2013 by the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) to celebrate its 50th anniversary and the International Year of Statistics. COPSS consists of five charter member statistical societies in North America and is best known for sponsoring prestigious awards in statistics, such as the COPSS Presidents' award. Through the contributions of a distinguished group of 50 statisticians who are past winners of at least one of the five awards sponsored by COPSS, this volume showcases the breadth and vibrancy of statistics, describes current challenges and new opportunities, highlights the exciting future of statistical science, and provides guidance to future generations of statisticians. The book is not only about statistics and science but also about people and their passion for discovery. Distinguished authors present expository articles on a broad spectrum of topics in statistical education, research, and applications. Topics covered include reminiscences and personal reflections on statistical careers, perspectives on the field and profession, thoughts on the discipline and the future of statistical science, and advice for young statisticians. Many of the articles are accessible not only to professional statisticians and graduate students but also to undergraduate students interested in pursuing statistics as a career and to all those who use statistics in solving real-world problems. A consistent theme of all the articles is the passion for statistics enthusiastically shared by the authors. Their success stories inspire, give a sense of statistics as a discipline, and provide a taste of the exhilaration of discovery, success, and professional accomplishment.

Includes chapters that provide context for statistical testimony by expert witnesses Includes chapters that describe relevant statistical methodology Includes chapters applying statistical methodology to specific areas of forensic science

Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science was commissioned in 2013 by the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) to celebrate its 50th anniversary and the International Year of Statistics. COPSS consists of five charter member statistical societies in North America and is best known for sponsoring prestigious awards in statistics, such as the COPSS Presidents' award. Through the contributions of a distinguished group of 50 statisticians who are past winners of at least one of the five awards sponsored by COPSS, this volume showcases the breadth and vibrancy of statistics, describes current challenges and new opportunities, highlights the exciting future of statistical science, and provides guidance to future generations of statisticians. The book is not only about statistics and science but also about people and their passion for discovery. Distinguished authors present expository articles on a broad spectrum of topics in statistical education, research, and applications. Topics covered include reminiscences and personal reflections on statistical careers, perspectives on the field and profession, thoughts on the discipline and the future of statistical science, and advice for young statisticians. Many of the articles are accessible not only to professional statisticians and graduate students but also to undergraduate students interested in pursuing statistics as a career and to all those who use statistics in solving real-world problems. A consistent theme of all the articles is the passion for statistics enthusiastically shared by the authors. Their success stories inspire, give a sense of statistics as a discipline, and provide a taste of the exhilaration of discovery, success, and professional accomplishment.

Bestselling author Cyndi Banks draws readers into a unique discussion of ethical issues by exploring moral dilemmas faced by professionals in the criminal justice system before examining the major theoretical foundations of ethics. This distinct and unique organization allows students to understand real-life ethical issues before grappling with philosophical approaches to the resolution of these issues. The Fifth Edition includes updated discussions around ethical issues in policing, corrections, the changing technological environment and its influence on courtrooms, and mass imprisonment and the ethical implications of current policies.

Sticks and stones may break my bones but all that other stuff is going to kill me...or you. In Dakota's mind there are only two options; shoot her bully or take her own life. If she does it in the crowded cafeteria they'd both pretty much have the same effect. Either way the witnesses will be left with a horrific visual and undeniable guilt that will serve as a reminder for the rest of their lives. At the end of the day it doesn't matter, it's going to be a tragic end and West Chase High will never be the same again.

Organizational commitment is an area of concern for Air Force leaders, so much so that commitment is a subject of interest on the annual Air Force Climate Assessment Survey. The Air Force has consistently failed to meet retention goals and designates millions of dollars toward reenlistment bonuses to improve retention every year. A more economical approach to increasing commitment may be to improve the characteristics of the job Air Force members perform. In addition to the relationship between commitment and job characteristics, there is also a relationship between commitment and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs). The purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between core job characteristics, organizational commitment, and the presence of OCBs in an Air Force setting. This research found that there was a positive correlation between organizational commitment and core job characteristics, and that there was a positive correlation between organizational commitment and OCBs. Commitment, however, was not found to mediate the relationship between core job characteristics and OCBs.

With the recent draw down of the US military after the end of the Cold War, the US Department of Defense (DoD) is placing considerable emphasis on employing a lighter, leaner, and more lethal military force to accomplish the strategic objectives mandated by political leadership. As a force enabler for military forces, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) recently demonstrated their potential during NATO military operations in Kosovo. Their activities weren't limited to merely gathering enemy intelligence. As a result of advancements in UAVs capabilities, UAVs expanded their operations by directly assisting in combat missions. The resulting logical question that evolved out of the Kosovo operations is, can UAVs be more actively integrated into other military functions to enhance mission accomplishment? More specifically, can UAVs be incorporated into the function of gaining and maintaining control of the air for US forces? To completely answer this question, this research paper will first analyze the current background of UAVs as seen in recent military operations. Secondly, the function of counter air will be examined to identify the deficiencies US forces have in obtaining control of the air. Third, the present and future capabilities that UAVs can bring to the fight will be identified. Fourth, a detailed examination of which UAVs payloads can be incorporated into the function of counterair will be accomplished. Fifth, this paper will show that UAVs can be effectively integrated to enhance US military weapons systems accomplishment of the function of counterair. Finally, this author will briefly discuss one possible plan to integrate UAVs in the function of counterair to overcome the noted deficiencies.

This study analyzes the Air Force.s decisions made concerning the advancement of tactical conventional airpower from 1953 to 1961. This thesis evaluates the decision- making process at three distinct levels using Graham T. Allison.s three decision-making models. First, this study examines Air Force decision-making based upon grand- strategic, systemic issues to conclude that tactical conventional airpower was given second priority to the dominant policy of strategic nuclear missions as a consequence of President Eisenhower.s desire to balance the federal budget while deterring the Soviet Union. Second, an evaluation of organizational decision-making within the various units that contributed to the advancement of tactical airpower reveals that despite the lower level of emphasis, tactical airpower was not entirely neglected.

This volume comprises two parts. Part I provides background material for the teacher and answers important questions and Part II contains the five lessons. Each classroom-tested, inquiry-based investigation follows the BSCS 5E Instructional Model.