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Ambitious as the enterprise was, and as demanding as the planning
effort promised to be, we set out to organize the IX International
Conference on Multiple criteria Decision Making (MCDM) which took
place in Fairfax, Virginia, on August 5-8, 1990. We knew it was
ambitious because the number of participants expected to attend the
conference would approach 160, larger than that of earlier
conferences, and because it would include a sizable contingent of
39 participants from the soviet union and Eastern Europe, possibly
the largest yet. In many ways, it may be appropriate to say, this
international conference presented a microcosm of peoples and new
ideas that reflected the extraordinary events that were to take
place in Europe and other parts of the world during that summer of
1990. with the theme: "Multiple criteria Decision Making and
support at the Interface of Industry, Business and Government" we
wanted to focus on new analytical methodologies and management
tools, quantitative and qualitative evaluation of decision
techniques, the design of experiments to test existing and proposed
methods, and the experience gained in the application of these MCDM
methods and tools to real-world problems during the last 10-15
years. Many analytical, behavioral, and technological advances are
to be made, we feel, at the interface of MCDM Theory, the
Behavioral Sciences, operations Research, Systems Engineering,
Decision Theory, Mathematical Sciences, and Information Technology.
viii The current proliferation of computer-based decision tools
offers new challenges and opportunities.
The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for
estimating space-time stochastic properties of local climatic
factors reflecting global climate change. Specifically, daily
precipitation amount and daily mean temperature are considered and
illustrated with application to the state of Nebraska, U. S. A.
Furthermore, a drought index with and without global climate change
is examined. The magnitude and consequences of regional response to
anticipated climatic changes are uncertain (Houghton et al., 1990).
Typical questions to be answered are: can time series of
hydrological events or 10cal climatic variables such as daily
temperature be conditioned in scenarios of future climate change
and if so, how can this be utilized ? Can extreme historical
drought events be reproduced by a stochastic hydroc1imatological
model ? Can such a model be used with General Circu1ation Model
(GCM) outputs to evaluate the regional/local effects of climate
change scenarios? The approach presented in this paper is an
extension of the usual analysis of regional hydrometeorological
impacts of climate change: we propose to examine time series of GCM
produced daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP), thought to be
relatively accurate GCM output to estimate local climatic factors.
The paper is organized as follows. First, daily CPs are classified
and analyzed statistically, first for historical and then for GCM
produced data. Next, the height of the 500 hPa pressure field is
introduced as an additional physically relevant variable
influencing local climatic factors within each CP type."
The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for
estimating space-time stochastic properties of local climatic
factors reflecting global climate change. Specifically, daily
precipitation amount and daily mean temperature are considered and
illustrated with application to the state of Nebraska, U. S. A.
Furthermore, a drought index with and without global climate change
is examined. The magnitude and consequences of regional response to
anticipated climatic changes are uncertain (Houghton et al., 1990).
Typical questions to be answered are: can time series of
hydrological events or 10cal climatic variables such as daily
temperature be conditioned in scenarios of future climate change
and if so, how can this be utilized ? Can extreme historical
drought events be reproduced by a stochastic hydroc1imatological
model ? Can such a model be used with General Circu1ation Model
(GCM) outputs to evaluate the regional/local effects of climate
change scenarios? The approach presented in this paper is an
extension of the usual analysis of regional hydrometeorological
impacts of climate change: we propose to examine time series of GCM
produced daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP), thought to be
relatively accurate GCM output to estimate local climatic factors.
The paper is organized as follows. First, daily CPs are classified
and analyzed statistically, first for historical and then for GCM
produced data. Next, the height of the 500 hPa pressure field is
introduced as an additional physically relevant variable
influencing local climatic factors within each CP type."
Hydraulic, hydrologic and water resources engineers have been
concerned for a long time about failure phenomena. One of the major
concerns is the definition of a failure event E, of its probability
of occurrence PtE), and of the complementary notion of reliability.
However, as the stochastic aspects of hydraulics and water
resources engineering were developed, words such as "failure,"
"reliability," and "risk" took on different meanings for different
specialists. For example, "risk" is defined in a Bayesian framework
as the expected loss resulting from a precisely defined failure
event, while according to the practice of stochastic hydraulics it
is the probability of occurrence of a failure event. The need to
standardize the various concepts and operational definitions
generated numerous exciting discussions between the co-editors of
this book during 1983-84 when L. Duckstein, under sponsorship of
the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (FRG), was working with E.
Plate at the Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources of the
University of Karlsruhe. After consulting with the Scientific
Affairs Division of NATO, an organizing committee was formed. This
comittee - J. Bernier (France), M. Benedini (Italy), S. Sorooshian
(U. S. A. ), and co-directors L. Duckstein (U. S. A. ) and E. J.
Plate (F. R. G. ) -- brought into being this NATO Advanced Study
Institute (ASI). Precisely stated, the purpose of this ASI was to
present a tutorial overview of existing work in the broad area of
reliability while also pointing out topics for further
development."
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