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We, the authors of this book, are three ardent devotees of chance,
or some what more precisely, of discrete probability. When we were
collecting the material, we felt that one special pleasure of the
field lay in its evocation of an earlier age: many of our
'probabilistic forefathers' were dexterous solvers of discrete
problems. We hope that this pleasure will be transmitted to the
readers. The first problem-book of a similar kind as ours is
perhaps Mosteller's well-known Fifty Challenging Problems in
Probability (1965). Possibly, our book is the second. The book
contains 125 problems and snapshots from the world of prob ability.
A 'problem' generally leads to a question with a definite answer. A
'snapshot' is either a picture or a bird's-eye view of some
probabilistic field. The selection is, of course, highly
subjective, and we have not even tried to cover all parts of the
subject systematically. Limit theorems appear only seldom, for
otherwise the book would have become unduly large. We want to state
emphatically that we have not written a textbook in probability,
but rather a book for browsing through when occupying an
easy-chair. Therefore, ideas and results are often put forth
without a machinery of formulas and derivations; the conscientious
readers, who want to penetrate the whole clockwork, will soon have
to move to their desks and utilize appropriate tools."
The Poisson "law of small numbers" is a central principle in modern
theories of reliability, insurance, and the statistics of extremes.
It also has ramifications in apparently unrelated areas, such as
the description of algebraic and combinatorial structures, and the
distribution of prime numbers. Yet despite its importance, the law
of small numbers is only an approximation. In 1975, however, a new
technique was introduced, the Stein-Chen method, which makes it
possible to estimate the accuracy of the approximation in a wide
range of situations. This book provides an introduction to the
method, and a varied selection of examples of its application,
emphasizing the flexibility of the technique when combined with a
judicious choice of coupling. It also contains more advanced
material, in particular on compound Poisson and Poisson process
approximation, where the reader is brought to the boundaries of
current knowledge. The study will be of special interest to
postgraduate students and researchers in applied probability as
well as computer scientists.
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