At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.

This collection of original articles 8 years in the making shines a bright light on recent advances in financial econometrics. From a survey of mathematical and statistical tools for understanding nonlinear Markov processes to an exploration of the time-series evolution of the risk-return tradeoff for stock market investment, noted scholars Yacine Ait-Sahalia and Lars Peter Hansen benchmark the current state of knowledge while contributors build a framework for its growth. Whether in the presence of statistical uncertainty or the proven advantages and limitations of value at risk models, readers will discover that they can set few constraints on the value of this long-awaited volume.
Presents a broad survey of current research-from local characterizations of the Markov process dynamics to financial market trading activityContributors include Nobel Laureate Robert Engle and leading econometriciansOffers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections"

A common set of mathematical tools underlies dynamic optimization, dynamic estimation, and filtering. In "Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economies," Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas Sargent use these tools to create a class of econometrically tractable models of prices and quantities. They present examples from microeconomics, macroeconomics, and asset pricing. The models are cast in terms of a representative consumer. While Hansen and Sargent demonstrate the analytical benefits acquired when an analysis with a representative consumer is possible, they also characterize the restrictiveness of assumptions under which a representative household justifies a purely aggregative analysis.

Based on the 2012 Gorman lectures, the authors unite economic theory with a workable econometrics while going beyond and beneath demand and supply curves for dynamic economies. They construct and apply competitive equilibria for a class of linear-quadratic-Gaussian dynamic economies with complete markets. Their book stresses heterogeneity, aggregation, and how a common structure unites what superficially appear to be diverse applications. An appendix describes MATLAB(r) programs that apply to the book's calculations.

The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.

A guide to the economic modeling of household preferences, from two leaders in the field A common set of mathematical tools underlies dynamic optimization, dynamic estimation, and filtering. In Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economies, Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas Sargent use these tools to create a class of econometrically tractable models of prices and quantities. They present examples from microeconomics, macroeconomics, and asset pricing. The models are cast in terms of a representative consumer. While Hansen and Sargent demonstrate the analytical benefits acquired when an analysis with a representative consumer is possible, they also characterize the restrictiveness of assumptions under which a representative household justifies a purely aggregative analysis. Hansen and Sargent unite economic theory with a workable econometrics while going beyond and beneath demand and supply curves for dynamic economies. They construct and apply competitive equilibria for a class of linear-quadratic-Gaussian dynamic economies with complete markets. Their book, based on the 2012 Gorman lectures, stresses heterogeneity, aggregation, and how a common structure unites what superficially appear to be diverse applications. An appendix describes MATLAB programs that apply to the book's calculations.

Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 7A, examines recent advances in foundational issues and "hot" topics within econometrics, such as inference for moment inequalities and estimation of high dimensional models. With its world-class editors and contributors, it succeeds in unifying leading studies of economic models, mathematical statistics and economic data. Our flourishing ability to address empirical problems in economics by using economic theory and statistical methods has driven the field of econometrics to unimaginable places. By designing methods of inference from data based on models of human choice behavior and social interactions, econometricians have created new subfields now sufficiently mature to require sophisticated literature summaries.

Applied financial econometrics subjects are featured in this second volume, with papers that survey important research even as they make unique empirical contributions to the literature. These subjects are familiar: portfolio choice, trading volume, the risk-return tradeoff, option pricing, bond yields, and the management, supervision, and measurement of extreme and infrequent risks. Yet their treatments are exceptional, drawing on current data and evidence to reflect recent events and scholarship. A landmark in its coverage, this volume should propel financial econometric research for years.

Presents a broad survey of current research
Contributors are leading econometricians
Offers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections

Written by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.

This is the second of three volumes containing edited versions of papers and commentaries presented in invited symposium sessions of the Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret recent key developments and discuss future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. The papers cover both theory and applications. Written by leading specialists in their fields these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline.

This is the third of three volumes containing edited versions of papers and commentaries presented in invited symposium sessions of the Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret recent key developments and discuss future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. The papers cover both theory and applications. Written by leading specialists in their fields these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline.

These three volumes contain edited versions of papers and commentaries presented in invited symposium sessions of the Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret recent key developments and future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. They cover theory and applications and provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline.

This is the second of three volumes containing edited versions of papers and commentaries presented in invited symposium sessions of the Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret recent key developments and discuss future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. The papers cover both theory and applications. Written by leading specialists in their fields these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline.

This is the third of three volumes containing edited versions of papers and commentaries presented in invited symposium sessions of the Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society. The papers summarize and interpret recent key developments and discuss future directions in a wide range of topics in economics and econometrics. The papers cover both theory and applications. Written by leading specialists in their fields these volumes provide a unique survey of progress in the discipline.