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This book's title betrays at once that it belongs in the forecast
literature. Peering into the future is a notoriously treacherous
venture. Nevertheless, it has become a prac tice endemic to the
business and government worlds as well as to academia, especially
economics. We like to be lieve that the enormous growth of
forecasting in the face of some disappointments reflects real needs
of decision makers (as well as the general public's well-warranted
curiosity about the future). Fashion alone could hardly explain the
sustained increase in the market for forecast services during the
past few decades. Some professionals insist on fine distinctions be
tween the forecast, the projection, the prediction-and the
prophecy. The differences are more semantic than real, as the
mandatory resort to Webster confirms. The entry "forecast" includes
references to prediction and prophecy without differentiation,
while "projection" is defined, among other things, as prediction or
"advance estimate." We use mainly the term projections because v
PREFACE vi much of our statistical research is based on forward es
timates of population and households by the U.S. Bu reau of the
Census which the bureau itself, the greatest fountain of data in
the world, records as projections."
This book is a volume in the Penn Press Anniversary Collection. To
mark its 125th anniversary in 2015, the University of Pennsylvania
Press rereleased more than 1,100 titles from Penn Press's
distinguished backlist from 1899-1999 that had fallen out of print.
Spanning an entire century, the Anniversary Collection offers
peer-reviewed scholarship in a wide range of subject areas.
Economic And Social History Of The World War Series.
Economic And Social History Of The World War Series.
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