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This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It
presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate
demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and
require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts,
analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not
require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or
statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of
populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods
are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and
total population. The book contains more traditional applications
such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new
applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory.
Real world empirical examples are provided for every application;
along with excel files containing data and program code, which are
accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic
measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and
estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications
to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other
characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population
theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality
components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed
to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate
course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement
for other courses including applied demography, business and
economic forecasting and market research.
This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It
presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate
demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and
require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts,
analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not
require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or
statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of
populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods
are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and
total population. The book contains more traditional applications
such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new
applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory.
Real world empirical examples are provided for every application;
along with excel files containing data and program code, which are
accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic
measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and
estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications
to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other
characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population
theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality
components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed
to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate
course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement
for other courses including applied demography, business and
economic forecasting and market research.
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