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This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the
quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of
fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value,
interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an
integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow
analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly
the inputs for decision support systems and models. This
presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of
structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria
decision analysis, often unaware of each other's developments.
Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from
experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements
from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the
issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield
elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the
Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert
processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods
can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through
14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or
decision makers, including two chapters on problems under
uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address
elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any
uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters
then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties
and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts.
Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the
presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food
security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision
making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat
risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer
in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop
planning in a Greek region.
This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the
quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of
fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value,
interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an
integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow
analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly
the inputs for decision support systems and models. This
presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of
structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria
decision analysis, often unaware of each other's developments.
Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from
experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements
from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the
issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield
elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the
Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert
processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods
can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through
14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or
decision makers, including two chapters on problems under
uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address
elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any
uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters
then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties
and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts.
Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the
presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food
security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision
making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat
risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer
in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop
planning in a Greek region.
This book showcases a large variety of multiple criteria decision
applications (MCDAs), presenting them in a coherent framework
provided by the methodology chapters and the comments accompanying
each case study. The chapters describing MCDAs invite the reader to
experiment with MCDA methods and perhaps develop new variants using
data from these case studies or other cases they encounter,
equipping them with a broader perception of real-world problems and
how to overcome them with the help of MCDAs.
This book showcases a large variety of multiple criteria decision
applications (MCDAs), presenting them in a coherent framework
provided by the methodology chapters and the comments accompanying
each case study. The chapters describing MCDAs invite the reader to
experiment with MCDA methods and perhaps develop new variants using
data from these case studies or other cases they encounter,
equipping them with a broader perception of real-world problems and
how to overcome them with the help of MCDAs.
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