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This research investigates how the real options framework and
Bayesian decision theory may be utilized to improve the capital
budgeting decision process. In particular, it investigates the
theoretical and modeling advantage of merging option pricing theory
with the Bayesian revision process to value investment decisions
defined by partial or full irreversibility of capital outlays,
uncertainty, and the opportunity to gather information.
Benchmarking from existing real options and Bayesian approaches,
new modeling methodologies are developed that value delay
investment scenarios in the context of information acquisition and
inclusion in the decision process. In this context, real option
attributes are discussed from a statistical decision theoretic
perspective, thresholds are identified for improved
decision-making, information's impact on downstream decision-making
is formally defined, and project activation policies are developed.
Using real data provided by firms in the aerospace maintenance,
repair, and overhaul industry, this Bayesian Learning Real Options
(BLRO) methodology is demonstrated within contingent investment and
license valuation scenarios.
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