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The vigorous stirring of a cup of tea gives rise, as we all know,
to interesting fluid dynamical phenomena, some of which are very
hard to explain. In this book our "cup of tea" contains the
currents of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, mantle, and fluid core.
Our goal is to under stand the basic physical processes which are
most important in describing what we observe, directly or
indirectly, in these complex systems. While in many respects our
understanding is measured by the ability to predict, the focus here
will be on relatively simple models which can aid our physical
intuition by suggesting useful mathematical methods of investiga
tion. These elementary models can be viewed as part of a hierarchy
of models of increasing complexity, moving toward those which might
be use fully predictive. The discussion in this book will deal
primarily with the Earth. Interplanetary probes of Venus, Mars,
Jupiter and Saturn have revealed many exciting phenomena which bear
on geophysical fluid dynamics. They have also enabled us to see the
effect of changing the values of certain parameters, such as
gravity and rotation rate, on geophysical flows. On the other hand,
satellite observations of our own planet on a daily and hourly
basis have turned it into a unique laboratory for the study of
fluid motions on a scale never dreamt of before: the motion of
cyclones can be observed via satellite just as wing tip vortices
are studied in a wind tunnel."
One of the main reasons we cannot tell what the weather will be
tomorrow is that we do not know accurately enough what the weather
is today. Mathematically speaking, numerical weather prediction
(NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear partial
differential equations in which the necessary initial values are
known only incompletely and inaccurately. Data at the initial time
of a numerical forecast can be supplemented, however, by
observations of the atmos phere over a time interval preceding it.
New observing systems, in particular polar-orbiting and
geostationary satellites, which are providing observations
continuously in time, make is absolutely necess ary to find new and
more satisfactory methods of assimilating meteorological
observations - for the dual purpose of defining atmospheric states
and of issuing forecasts from the states thus defined. FUndamental
progress in this area has been made in recent years and this book
attempts to give a review and some suggestions for further
improvements in the field of meteorological data assimila tion
methods. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF) every year organises seminars for the benefit of
meteorologists and geophysicists of the ECMWF Member states. The
1980 Seminar was devoted to data assimilation methods, and this
book contains selected lectures from that seminar. The purpose of
the seminar was twofold: it was intended to give a basic
introduction to the subject, as well as an overview of the latest
developments in the field."
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