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This book represents the outcome of the Second IWA Leading-Edge
Conference held in Sydney, Australia in November 2004.
Sustainability is a paradoxical concept. We know we want to protect
the environment from human-induced change, yet ecosystems are
dynamic, constantly changing and adapting in response to a
multitude of factors, the combined effect and subtleties of which
are probably well beyond human calculation. Furthermore, our
conscious desire to protect the environment - which forces us to
think of humans as sitting outside ecosystems - conflicts with the
unavoidable fact that we are an unconscious actor within those
ecosystems. We must also recognise that the goal of 'protecting the
environment' is not a clear-cut objective. Perhaps, because of its
complexity and propensity to change, we cannot know what the fully
protected environment would look like. Individual preferences too
make the conceptualisation of an ideal state impossible; do we
strive for an ecosystem in which we play a minor part - barely
influencing natural outcomes - or one that is more actively managed
and provides for our needs or wants? Neither this volume, nor the
conference from which it draws, resolve the paradoxes described
above. The papers presented here do, however, provide insight into
the innovative thinking and practical projects undertaken across
the globe that move us from patently unsustainable conditions to
those in which our economic activity, impact on ecosystems and
desire for positive social outcomes are in better balance.
Since the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
began its study of water quality modeling and management in 1977,
it has been interested in the relations between uncertainty and the
problems of model calibration and prediction. The work has focused
on the theme of modeling poorly defined environmental systems, a
principal topic of the effort devoted to environmental quality
control and management. Accounting for the effects of uncertainty
was also of central concern to our two case studies of lake
eutrophication management, one dealing with Lake Balaton in Hungary
and the other with several Austrian lake systems. Thus, in November
1979 we held a meeting at Laxenburg to discuss recent method
ological developments in addressing problems associated with
uncertainty and forecasting of water quality. This book is based on
the proceedings of that meeting. The last few years have seen an
increase in awareness of the issue of uncertainty in water quality
and ecological modeling. This book is relevant not only to
contemporary issues but also to those of the future. A lack of
field data will not always be the dominant problem for water
quality modeling and management; more sophisticated measuring
techniques and more comprehensive monitoring networks will come to
be more widely applied. Rather, the important problems of the
future are much more likely to emerge from the enhanced facility of
data processing and to concern the meaningful interpretation,
assimilation., and use of the information thus obtained."
During 1978-1982 the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA) was responsible for a research project on
Environmental Quality Control and Management. The project was begun
under the direction of Professor O. F. Vasiliev (from the Institute
of Hydrodynamics of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of
Sciences) and was subsequently led by myself. This review is very
much a re'fiection of that IIASA project. The major themes of the
IIASA project were: (i) research into the methodological aspects of
modeling river and lake sys tems [some of the principal results of
this research appear in M. B. Beck and G. van Straten (eds. )
(1983), Uncertainty and Forecasting of Water Quality (Springer,
Berlin (West)), and in K. Fedra (1983), Environmental Modeling
Under Uncertainty: Monte Carlo Simulation (IIASA Research Report
RR-83-28)]; (ii) case studies in the application of mathematical
models to lake eutrophi cation control [results of which are
summarized in L. Somlyody, S. Hero dek, and J. Fischer (eds. )
(1983), Eutrophication of Shallow Lakes: Model ing and Management
(The Lake Balaton Case Study) (IIASA Collaborative Proceedings
CP-83-S3), and in K. Fedra (1983), A Modular Approach to
Comprehensive System Simulation: A Case Study of Lakes and
Watersheds (in W. K. Lauenroth, G. V. Skogerboe, and M. Flug (eds.
), Analysis of Ecological Systems: State-of-the-Art in Ecological
Modelling, pp. 195-204. Elsevier, Amsterdam)]; iv (iii) a policy
study of operational water qua,lity management [M. B. Beck (1981),
Operational Water Quality Management: Beyond Planning and Design
(IIASA Executive Report ER-7)].
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