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In the wake of the Great Recession of 2008-09, economists feared
that protectionist policies might sweep the world economy, echoing
the wave of tariff escalations during the Great Depression of the
1930s. To some surprise, officials were more restrained and largely
avoided traditional forms of protection (tariffs and quotas). As a
result, economists underestimated the incidence of new
protectionism because policymakers increasingly turned to more
opaque behind-the-border nontariff barriers (NTBs). Using a
combination of statistical analysis and case studies, the authors
show that local content requirements (LCRs), a form of NTB, have
become increasingly popular. How much was global trade actually
reduced on account of LCRs? A conservative estimate might be $93
billion. Case studies featured cover the healthcare sector in
Brazil, wind turbines in Canada, the automobile industry in China,
solar cells and modules in India, oil and gas in Nigeria, and "Buy
American" restrictions on government procurement.
It is not in the US interest to adopt tax and regulatory policies
that would discourage global engagement by US multinational
corporations (MNCs). Research presented in this book shows that the
expansion of foreign affiliates of US MNCs is positively associated
with more production, greater employment, higher exports, and more
research and development (R&D) in the United States. These
findings suggest that less investment abroad by US firms would
weaken-not strengthen-the US economy. This analysis by no means
implies that there are only winners and no losers from outward
investment. Changing patterns of MNC investment, like changing
patterns of technology and production more generally, contribute to
job losses and dislocations for some workers and to new
opportunities for others. To benefit the US economy and US workers
most broadly, the United States will want to search for ways to
strengthen the appeal of the United States as a base for the
operations of international firms. High among the recommendations
to accomplish this, the United States should adopt a territorial
tax system, like the great majority of developed countries.
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