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Economic integration has been a focus of Asia-Pacific affairs for
the last quarter century. To support and strengthen economic ties,
governments in the region have pursued an array of integration
initiatives, from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
forum launched in 1989 to bilateral and regional trade negotiations
currently underway. APEC has been the most successful tool of
regional trade and investment integration thus far and has the
potential to continue bridging differences between various
integration efforts in the region. This report, with input from a
wide variety of regional and topical experts, posits that
developing a common, high-standard policy approach to value chains
could pull together the various integration efforts to the
substantial economic benefit of the entire region. The report
offers eight recommendations for a broad-based APEC initiative
building on existing work in the region on supply chains and
connectivity.
China faces increasing economic headwinds that call into question
not only its near-term growth outlook but the longer-term
sustainability of its economic success. At a time of leadership
transition in Beijing, global markets and policymakers alike are
casting an anxious eye on China's economic decisionmakers and
wondering whether they have the plans, skills, and fortitude to
cope with these challenges. There is a rising premium on
understanding how Chinese economic policy decisions are made,
whether the emerging cadre of policymakers has the wherewithal to
navigate the more turbulent waters ahead, and what the implications
are for U.S. foreign and economic policy.
As the United States and China mark their 40th anniversary of
formal diplomatic relations in 2019, the world's most important
bilateral relationship is increasingly defined by mistrust,
competition, and uncertainty. After four decades of deepening
economic integration, the talk in Washington today is about the
extent to which the two economies will "decouple" over the years
ahead. We drew on several different academic disciplines to help us
model how an economic conflict between the United States and China
could escalate and eventually de-escalate. Despite the challenges
inherent in modelling economic conflict, our model was validated to
a surprising extent by both our simulations and real-world
developments. The project produced several findings that were both
unexpected and relevant to policy, including that economic conflict
is likely to be an enduring feature of the U.S.-China relationship
for many years to come. Until perceptions of relative costs in the
two countries shift, Washington and Beijing seem set on a path of
continued escalation, no substantial trade deal, and at least
partial decoupling of their economies. Reflecting on these
findings, the report also provides recommendations for U.S.
policymakers seeking to engage in successful economic bargaining
with China.
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