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This book offers a thorough introduction to the highly promising complex agent-based approach to economics, in which agent-based models (ABMs) are used to represent economic systems as complex and evolving systems composed of heterogeneous agents of limited rationality who interact with each other, generating the system's emergent properties in the process. This approach represents a response to the limitations of the dominant theory in economics, which does not consider the possibility of a major crisis, and to the inability of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory to generate empirically falsifiable propositions. In the new perspective, the focus is on identifying the elements of instability rather than the triggering event. As the theory of complexity demonstrates, the interactions of heterogeneous agents produce non-linearity: this puts an end to the age of certainties. With ABMs, the methodology is "from the bottom up". The individual parameters and their distribution are estimated, and then evaluated to verify whether aggregate regularities emerge on the whole. In short, not only micro, but also meso and macro empirical validation are employed. Moreover, it shows that the mantra of growth should be supplanted by the concept of a growth . Given its depth of coverage, the book will enable students at the undergraduate and Master's level to gain a firm grasp of this important emerging approach. "This book is flower blossomed by one of the two greatest Italian economists." Bruce Greenwald, Columbia University "The author's - the ABM prophet's - thoughts on economics have been at the forefront of the world. Without a firm belief in and dedication to human society, it is impossible to write such a book. This is a work of high academic value, which can help readers quickly understand the history and current situation of complex economic theory. In particular, we can understand the basic viewpoints, academic status, advantages and shortcomings of various schools of economic theory." Jie Wu, Guangzhou Milestone Software Co., China
This book offers a practical guide to Agent Based economic modeling, adopting a "learning by doing" approach to help the reader master the fundamental tools needed to create and analyze Agent Based models. After providing them with a basic "toolkit" for Agent Based modeling, it present and discusses didactic models of real financial and economic systems in detail. While stressing the main features and advantages of the bottom-up perspective inherent to this approach, the book also highlights the logic and practical steps that characterize the model building procedure. A detailed description of the underlying codes, developed using R and C, is also provided. In addition, each didactic model is accompanied by exercises and applications designed to promote active learning on the part of the reader. Following the same approach, the book also presents several complementary tools required for the analysis and validation of the models, such as sensitivity experiments, calibration exercises, economic network and statistical distributions analysis. By the end of the book, the reader will have gained a deeper understanding of the Agent Based methodology and be prepared to use the fundamental techniques required to start developing their own economic models. Accordingly, "Economics with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents" will be of particular interest to graduate and postgraduate students, as well as to academic institutions and lecturers interested in including an overview of the AB approach to economic modeling in their courses.
This book arose from our conviction that the NNS-DSGE approach to the analysis of aggregate market outcomes is fundamentally flawed. The practice of overcoming the SMD result by recurring to a fictitious RA leads to insurmountable methodological problems and lies at the root of DSGE models failure to satisfactorily explain real world features, like exchange rate and banking crises, bubbles and herding in financial markets, swings in the sentiment of consumers and entrepreneurs, asymmetries and persistence in aggregate variables, and so on. At odds with this view, our critique rests on the premise that any modern macroeconomy should be modeled instead as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting individuals, acting adaptively and autonomously according to simple and empirically validated rules of thumb. We call our proposed approach Bottom-up Adaptive Macroeconomics (BAM). The reason why we claim that the contents of this book can be inscribed in the realm of macroeconomics is threefold: i) We are looking for a framework that helps us to think coherently about the interrelationships among two or more markets. In what follows, in particular, three markets will be considered: the markets for goods, labor and loanable funds. In this respect, real time matters: what happens in one market depends on what has happened, on what is happening, or on what will happen in other markets. This implies that intertemporal coordination issues cannot be ignored. ii) Eventually, it s all about prices and quantities. However, we are mostly interested in aggregate prices and quantities, that is indexes built from the dispersed outcomes of the decentralized transactions of a large population of heterogeneous individuals. Each individual acts purposefully, but she knows anything about the levels of prices and quantities which clear markets in the aggregate. iii) In the hope of being allowed to purport scientific claims, BAM relies on the assumption that individual purposeful behaviours aggregates into regularities. Macro behaviour, however, can depart radically from what the individual units are trying to accomplish. It is in this sense that aggregate outcomes emerge from individual actions and interactions.
This valuable book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics. It provides a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics.
This book presents a systematic overview of cutting-edge research in the field of parametric modeling of personal income and wealth distribution, which allows one to represent how income/wealth is distributed within a given population. The estimated parameters may be used to gain insights into the causes of the evolution of income/wealth distribution over time, or to interpret the differences between distributions across countries. Moreover, once a given parametric model has been fitted to a data set, one can straightforwardly compute inequality and poverty measures. Finally, estimated parameters may be used in empirical modeling of the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the evolution of personal income/wealth distribution. In reviewing the state of the art in the field, the authors provide a thorough discussion of parametric models belonging to the " -generalized" family, a new and fruitful set of statistical models for the size distribution of income and wealth that they have developed over several years of collaborative and multidisciplinary research. This book will be of interest to all who share the belief that problems of income and wealth distribution merit detailed conceptual and methodological attention.
In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, labour markets, and economic growth.
This challenging book extends standard economic theory to take into account the presence of heterogeneity among economic agents. It argues for an approach to economic analysis which regards the economy as an interactive system with heterogeneous agents and not simply a system which treats aggregates as some 'representative' individual. The authors consider that no sector of the economy can be treated as behaving like a single individual and each sector should be modelled as a complex interactive system. They apply this approach to many macro- and micro- analyses including monetary policy and firms, technological innovation and the insider-outsider model. In conclusion the authors find that this approach proves much more fruitful in explaining empirical phenomena than much of the existing theory. The result of this approach to economic theory which encompasses many realistic features, provides a vision of the economy which is not at odds with common sense, but which does not abandon rigorous analysis. This important book will be welcomed by those interested in both macro and micro economic theory.
This book offers a thorough introduction to the highly promising complex agent-based approach to economics, in which agent-based models (ABMs) are used to represent economic systems as complex and evolving systems composed of heterogeneous agents of limited rationality who interact with each other, generating the system's emergent properties in the process. This approach represents a response to the limitations of the dominant theory in economics, which does not consider the possibility of a major crisis, and to the inability of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory to generate empirically falsifiable propositions. In the new perspective, the focus is on identifying the elements of instability rather than the triggering event. As the theory of complexity demonstrates, the interactions of heterogeneous agents produce non-linearity: this puts an end to the age of certainties. With ABMs, the methodology is "from the bottom up". The individual parameters and their distribution are estimated, and then evaluated to verify whether aggregate regularities emerge on the whole. In short, not only micro, but also meso and macro empirical validation are employed. Moreover, it shows that the mantra of growth should be supplanted by the concept of a growth . Given its depth of coverage, the book will enable students at the undergraduate and Master's level to gain a firm grasp of this important emerging approach. "This book is flower blossomed by one of the two greatest Italian economists." Bruce Greenwald, Columbia University "The author's - the ABM prophet's - thoughts on economics have been at the forefront of the world. Without a firm belief in and dedication to human society, it is impossible to write such a book. This is a work of high academic value, which can help readers quickly understand the history and current situation of complex economic theory. In particular, we can understand the basic viewpoints, academic status, advantages and shortcomings of various schools of economic theory." Jie Wu, Guangzhou Milestone Software Co., China
This book offers a practical guide to Agent Based economic modeling, adopting a "learning by doing" approach to help the reader master the fundamental tools needed to create and analyze Agent Based models. After providing them with a basic "toolkit" for Agent Based modeling, it present and discusses didactic models of real financial and economic systems in detail. While stressing the main features and advantages of the bottom-up perspective inherent to this approach, the book also highlights the logic and practical steps that characterize the model building procedure. A detailed description of the underlying codes, developed using R and C, is also provided. In addition, each didactic model is accompanied by exercises and applications designed to promote active learning on the part of the reader. Following the same approach, the book also presents several complementary tools required for the analysis and validation of the models, such as sensitivity experiments, calibration exercises, economic network and statistical distributions analysis. By the end of the book, the reader will have gained a deeper understanding of the Agent Based methodology and be prepared to use the fundamental techniques required to start developing their own economic models. Accordingly, "Economics with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents" will be of particular interest to graduate and postgraduate students, as well as to academic institutions and lecturers interested in including an overview of the AB approach to economic modeling in their courses.
This book presents a systematic overview of cutting-edge research in the field of parametric modeling of personal income and wealth distribution, which allows one to represent how income/wealth is distributed within a given population. The estimated parameters may be used to gain insights into the causes of the evolution of income/wealth distribution over time, or to interpret the differences between distributions across countries. Moreover, once a given parametric model has been fitted to a data set, one can straightforwardly compute inequality and poverty measures. Finally, estimated parameters may be used in empirical modeling of the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the evolution of personal income/wealth distribution. In reviewing the state of the art in the field, the authors provide a thorough discussion of parametric models belonging to the " -generalized" family, a new and fruitful set of statistical models for the size distribution of income and wealth that they have developed over several years of collaborative and multidisciplinary research. This book will be of interest to all who share the belief that problems of income and wealth distribution merit detailed conceptual and methodological attention.
This book arose from our conviction that the NNS-DSGE approach to the analysis of aggregate market outcomes is fundamentally flawed. The practice of overcoming the SMD result by recurring to a fictitious RA leads to insurmountable methodological problems and lies at the root of DSGE models' failure to satisfactorily explain real world features, like exchange rate and banking crises, bubbles and herding in financial markets, swings in the sentiment of consumers and entrepreneurs, asymmetries and persistence in aggregate variables, and so on. At odds with this view, our critique rests on the premise that any modern macroeconomy should be modeled instead as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting individuals, acting adaptively and autonomously according to simple and empirically validated rules of thumb. We call our proposed approach Bottom-up Adaptive Macroeconomics (BAM). The reason why we claim that the contents of this book can be inscribed in the realm of macroeconomics is threefold: i) We are looking for a framework that helps us to think coherently about the interrelationships among two or more markets. In what follows, in particular, three markets will be considered: the markets for goods, labor and loanable funds. In this respect, real time matters: what happens in one market depends on what has happened, on what is happening, or on what will happen in other markets. This implies that intertemporal coordination issues cannot be ignored. ii) Eventually, it's all about prices and quantities. However, we are mostly interested in aggregate prices and quantities, that is indexes built from the dispersed outcomes of the decentralized transactions of a large population of heterogeneous individuals. Each individual acts purposefully, but she knows anything about the levels of prices and quantities which clear markets in the aggregate. iii) In the hope of being allowed to purport scientific claims, BAM relies on the assumption that individual purposeful behaviours aggregates into regularities. Macro behaviour, however, can depart radically from what the individual units are trying to accomplish. It is in this sense that aggregate outcomes emerge from individual actions and interactions.
This valuable book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics. It provides a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics.
The economy is examined by the authors as a complex interactive system. The emphasis is on the direct interaction between agents rather than on the indirect and autonomous interaction through the market mechanism. Contributions from economists and physicists emphasise the consequences for aggregate behaviour of the interaction between agents with limited rationality. Models of financial markets which exhibit many of the stylised facts of empirical markets such as bubbles, herd behaviour and long memory are presented. This includes contributions on bargaining, buyer-seller relations, the evolution of economic networks and several aspects of macro-economic behaviour. This book will be of interest to all those interested in the foundations of collective social and economic behaviour and in particular, to those concerned with the dynamics of market behaviour and recent applications of physics to economics.
3 Domenico Delli Gatti!, Mauro GallegatF, Alan P. Kirman ! ITEMQ, Catholic University, Milan, Italy 2 MET, University of Teramo, Italy 3 GREQAM, Universite d'Aix-Marseille, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, and Institut Universitaire de France The economics of heterogeneity This volume contains a set of papers which pursue the aim of examining how the properties of aggregate economic variables are influenced by the actions and interactions of individuals. This has been the central theme of a series of workshops held at the University of Ancona, Italy, since 1996, whose general title is Workshops on Economics with Heterogeneous Interactive Agents (WEHIA for short). ! Considering the economy as a complex evolving system of interacting agents, one has to take seriously three fundamental issues: * the heterogeneity of the agents in the economy, * the ways in which agents interact, * the dynamic process which governs the evolution of the individual and the aggregate variables. The third issue concerns especially the idea that agents learn and adapt rather than calculate optimally (Anderson et aI. , 1988; Arthur et aI. , 1997; Allen, 1988. ) As to the first issue, general equilibrium theory allows, of course, agents to be as heterogeneous as one wants but as the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu results have I The papers published in this book are a selected sample of the papers presented at the 3rd WEHIA workshop held at the University of Ancona on May 29-30,1998.
Introduction to Agent-Based Economics describes the principal elements of agent-based computational economics (ACE). It illustrates ACE's theoretical foundations, which are rooted in the application of the concept of complexity to the social sciences, and it depicts its growth and development from a non-linear out-of-equilibrium approach to a state-of-the-art agent-based macroeconomics. The book helps readers gain a better understanding of the limits and perspectives of the ACE models and their capacity to reproduce economic phenomena and empirical patterns.
In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, labour markets, and economic growth.
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