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Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has
struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between
China and Taiwan -today the Taiwan question is considered a
potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict.
Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan,
Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers
of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in
capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, and China's security
relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific. There is
increasing concern that Beijing is steadily shifting the balance of
power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. Recent advances in
Chinese air and naval power, along with changes in PLA doctrine,
have the potential to weaken deterrence and destabilize the
cross-strait military balance. At this critical juncture, there is
not question that this issue requires sustained, detailed analysis
and that many measures can and should be taken to reduce the threat
of conflict between China, Taiwan, and the United States. Assessing
the Threat offers such analysis as well as concrete suggestions and
crisis management practices for government and military leaders in
Washington, D.C., Beijing, and Taipei.
Managing the rise of China constitutes one of the most important
challenges facing the United States in the early 21st century.
China has always been an important state in the international
system because of its large territory, vast resources, and huge
population. But its significance for international politics has
dramatically increased since 1978, when the market reforms
initiated by Deng Xiaoping placed China on a course that could lead
to rapid transformation of potential resources that had remained
untapped. This process is significant not only because it promises
the internal transformation of one of the world's oldest
civilizations but also because - if concluded successfully - it
could result in a dramatic power transition within the
international system. The rise of China is consequently of great
analytical and policy interest, and examining the determinates of
China's grand strategy is critical to any assessment of current and
future Chinese security behavior, especially Chinese behavior
toward the United States and its allies. This book identifies and
analyzes the major factors determining Chinese grand strategy -
past, present, and future - to better understand the motives behind
Chinese strategic behavior and to assess how such behavior might
evolve in the future. The ultimate purpose of such analysis is to
more clearly understand whether, and in what manner, China's grand
strategy might pose fundamental challenges to U.S. strategic
interests.
A comprehensive picture of China's national security policy
process, with particular attention to the military's increasing
influence in these critical areas.
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