Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between China and Taiwan -today the Taiwan question is considered a potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict. Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan, Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, and China's security relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific. There is increasing concern that Beijing is steadily shifting the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. Recent advances in Chinese air and naval power, along with changes in PLA doctrine, have the potential to weaken deterrence and destabilize the cross-strait military balance. At this critical juncture, there is not question that this issue requires sustained, detailed analysis and that many measures can and should be taken to reduce the threat of conflict between China, Taiwan, and the United States. Assessing the Threat offers such analysis as well as concrete suggestions and crisis management practices for government and military leaders in Washington, D.C., Beijing, and Taipei.

Managing the rise of China constitutes one of the most important challenges facing the United States in the early 21st century. China has always been an important state in the international system because of its large territory, vast resources, and huge population. But its significance for international politics has dramatically increased since 1978, when the market reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping placed China on a course that could lead to rapid transformation of potential resources that had remained untapped. This process is significant not only because it promises the internal transformation of one of the world's oldest civilizations but also because - if concluded successfully - it could result in a dramatic power transition within the international system. The rise of China is consequently of great analytical and policy interest, and examining the determinates of China's grand strategy is critical to any assessment of current and future Chinese security behavior, especially Chinese behavior toward the United States and its allies. This book identifies and analyzes the major factors determining Chinese grand strategy - past, present, and future - to better understand the motives behind Chinese strategic behavior and to assess how such behavior might evolve in the future. The ultimate purpose of such analysis is to more clearly understand whether, and in what manner, China's grand strategy might pose fundamental challenges to U.S. strategic interests.

A comprehensive picture of China's national security policy process, with particular attention to the military's increasing influence in these critical areas.