The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is the primary statistical data collection agency within the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). NASS conducts hundreds of surveys each year and prepares reports covering virtually every aspect of U.S. agriculture. Among the small-area estimates produced by NASS are county-level estimates for crops (planted acres, harvested acres, production, and yield by commodity) and for cash rental rates for irrigated cropland, nonirrigated cropland, and permanent pastureland. Key users of these county-level estimates include USDA's Farm Services Agency (FSA) and Risk Management Agency (RMA), which use the estimates as part of their processes for distributing farm subsidies and providing farm insurance, respectively. Improving Crop Estimates by Integrating Multiple Data Sources assesses county-level crop and cash rents estimates, and offers recommendations on methods for integrating data sources to provide more precise county-level estimates of acreage and yield for major crops and of cash rents by land use. This report considers technical issues involved in using the available data sources, such as methods for integrating the data, the assumptions underpinning the use of each source, the robustness of the resulting estimates, and the properties of desirable estimates of uncertainty. Table of Contents Front Matter Executive Summary 1 Introduction 2 A Vision of NASS in 2025 3 Multiple Data Sources for Crops: Challenges and Opportunities 4 Sources of Data for Cash Rents 5 Implementing the Vision and Beyond References Appendix A: NASS County-Level Survey Programs Appendix B: Routine External Evaluation Protocol Appendix C: Small-Area Modeling in Space and Time with Multiple Data Sources Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff Committee on National Statistics

The Committee on National Statistics of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a 2-day public workshop from December 11-12, 2019, to discuss the suite of data products the Census Bureau will generate from the 2020 Census. The workshop featured presentations by users of decennial census data products to help the Census Bureau better understand the uses of the data products and the importance of these uses and help inform the Census Bureau's decisions on the final specification of 2020 data products. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter 1 Introduction 2 Disclosure Avoidance in the 2020 Census 3 Geospatial Analyses of Social and Demographic Conditions 4 Redistricting and Related Legal Uses 5 Delivery of Government Services 6 Business and Private Sector Applications 7 Use as Denominators for Rates and Baseline for Estimates 8 Identification of Rural and Special Populations: American Indians and Alaska Natives 9 Identification of Rural and Special Populations: Small Communities, the Young, and the Elderly 10 Panel Discussion on Key Privacy Issues 11 Census Bureau's Responses and Own Analyses of 2010 Demonstration Data Products 12 Summary of Breakout Discussion Sessions References Appendixes Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and Participants Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Planning Committee Members and External Presenters Committee on National Statistics

In 2014, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) engaged the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to convene a planning committee to organize a public workshop for an expert open discussion of their then-current livestock models. The models had worked well for some time. Unfortunately beginning in 2013, an epidemic that killed baby pigs broke out in the United States. The epidemic was not fully realized until 2014 and spread to many states. The result was a decline in hog inventories and pork production that was not predicted by the models. NASS delayed the workshop until 2019 while it worked to develop models that could help in times both of equilibrium and shock (disease or disaster), as well as alternative approaches to help detect the onset of a shock. The May 15, 2019, workshop was consistent with NASS's 2014 intention, but with a focus on a model that can help predict hog inventories over time, including during times of shock. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter 1 Introduction 2 Motivation and Challenges 3 The Quarterly Hog Inventory Survey 4 Setting Official Estimates: The Hog Board 5 Modeling Efforts 6 Web-Scraping Effects 7 Modeling Swine Population Dynamics 8 Discussion of Detection and Monitoring 9 Discussion of Modeling 10 Discussion of State-Level Estimation 11 Discussion of Visions for the Future References Appendix A: Agenda and List of Participants Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Planning Committee Members and Speakers Committee on National Statistics

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Economic Research Service's (ERS) Food Availability Data System includes three distinct but related data series on food and nutrient availability for consumption. The data serve as popular proxies for actual consumption at the national level for over 200 commodities (e.g., fresh spinach, beef, and eggs). The core Food Availability (FA) data series provides data on the amount of food available, per capita, for human consumption in the United States with data back to 1909 for many commodities. The Loss-Adjusted Food Availability (LAFA) data series is derived from the FA data series by adjusting for food spoilage, plate waste, and other losses to more closely approximate 4 actual intake. The LAFA data provide daily estimates of the per capita availability amounts adjusted for loss (e.g., in pounds, ounces, grams, and gallons as appropriate), calories, and food pattern equivalents (i.e., "servings") of the five major food groups (fruit, vegetables, grains, meat, and dairy) available for consumption plus the amounts of added sugars and sweeteners and added fats and oils available for consumption. This fiscal year, as part of its initiative to systematically review all of its major data series, ERS decided to review the FADS data system. One of the goals of this review is to advance the knowledge and understanding of the measurement and technical aspects of the data supporting FADS so the data can be maintained and improved. Data and Research to Improve the U.S. Food Availability System and Estimates of Food Loss is the summary of a workshop convened by the Committee on National Statistics of the National Research Council and the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine to advance knowledge and understanding of the measurement and technical aspects of the data supporting the LAFA data series so that these data series and subsequent food availability and food loss estimates can be maintained and improved. The workshop considered such issues as the effects of termination of selected Census Bureau and USDA data series on estimates for affected food groups and commodities; the potential for using other data sources, such as scanner data, to improve estimates of food availability; and possible ways to improve the data on food loss at the farm and retail levels and at restaurants. This report considers knowledge gaps, data sources that may be available or could be generated to fill gaps, what can be learned from other countries and international organizations, ways to ensure consistency of treatment of commodities across series, and the most promising opportunities for new data for the various food availability series. Table of Contents Front Matter 1 Introduction and Background 2 The Food Availability System and Food Loss Estimates: Current Methods, Data, and Uses 3 Historical and Current Uses of the Data for Economic Modeling and Reporting of Statistical Trends 4 Alternative Approaches for Estimating Food Availability: International and Domestic 5 Alternative Approaches for Estimating Food Loss: International and Domestic 6 Wrap-Up Bibliography Appendix A: Glossary and Acronyms Appendix B: Agenda Appendix C: Workshop Participants Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Speakers and Steering Committee Members Committee on National Statistics Food and Nutrition Board

The National School Lunch and School Breakfast Programs, administered by the Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), are key components of the nation's food security safety net, providing free or low-cost meals to millions of schoolchildren each day. To qualify their children each year for free or reduced-price meals, many families must submit applications that school officials distribute and review. To reduce this burden on families and schools and to encourage more children to partake of nutritious meals, USDA regulations allow school districts to operate their meals programs under special provisions that eliminate the application process and other administrative procedures in exchange for providing free meals to all students enrolled in one or more school in a district. FNS asked the National Academies' Committee on National Statistics and Food and Nutrition Board to convene a panel of experts to investigate the technical and operational feasibility of using data from the continuous American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate students eligible for free and reduced-price meals for schools and school districts. The ACS eligibility estimates would be used to develop "claiming percentages" that, if sufficiently accurate, would determine the USDA reimbursements to districts for schools that provided free meals to all students under a new special provision that eliminated the ongoing base-year requirements of current provisions. Using American Community Survey Data to Expand Access to the School Meals Program was conducted in two phases. It first issued an interim report (National Research Council, 2010), describing its planned approach for assessing the utility of ACS-based estimates for a special provision to expand access to free school meals. This report is the final phase which presents the panel's findings and recommendations. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 The School Meals Programs 3 Technical Approach 4 Data Analysis and Results 5 A Plan for Implementing the AEO 6 Recommendations for Future Work References and Bibliography Appendix A: Glossary of Acronyms and Terms Appendix B: Estimates of Eligible Students Using the American Community Survey Appendix C: Model-Based Estimates for School Districts and School Attendance Areas Appendix D: American Community Survey (ACS) and Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)-Like Tabulations Requested from the U.S. Census Bureau Appendix E: Data Collected from School Districts Appendix F: Additional Information About the Panel's Analyses Appendix G: Causes of Systematic Differences Between American Community Survey (ACS) and Administrative Estimates Appendix H: Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff

The National Children's Study (NCS) was authorized by the Children's Health Act of 2000 and is being implemented by a dedicated Program Office in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD). The NCS is planned to be a longitudinal observational birth cohort study to evaluate the effects of chronic and intermittent exposures on child health and development in the U.S.. The NCS would be the first study to collect a broad range of environmental exposure measures for a national probability sample of about 100,000 children, followed from birth or before birth to age 21. Detailed plans for the NCS were developed by 2007 and reviewed by a National Research Council / Institute of Medicine panel. At that time, sample recruitment for the NCS Main Study was scheduled to begin in 2009 and to be completed within about 5 years. However, results from the initial seven pilot locations, which recruited sample cases in 2009-2010, indicated that the proposed household-based recruitment approach would be more costly and time consuming than planned. In response, the Program Office implemented a number of pilot tests in 2011 to evaluate alternative recruitment methods and pilot testing continues to date. At the request of Congress, The National Children's Study 2014 reviews the revised study design and proposed methodologies for the NCS Main Study. This report assesses the study's plan to determine whether it is likely to produce scientifically sound results that are generalizable to the United States population and appropriate subpopulations. The report makes recommendations about the overall study framework, sample design, timing, content and need for scientific expertise and oversight. The National Children's Study has the potential to add immeasurably to scientific knowledge about the impact of environmental exposures, broadly defined, on children\'s health and development in the United States. The recommendations of this report will help the NCS will achieve its intended objective to examine the effects of environmental influences on the health and development of American children.