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After a war breaks out, what factors influence the warring parties'
decisions about whether to talk to their enemy, and when may their
position on wartime diplomacy change? How do we get from only
fighting to also talking? In The Costs of Conversation, Oriana
Skylar Mastro argues that states are primarily concerned with the
strategic costs of conversation, and these costs need to be low
before combatants are willing to engage in direct talks with their
enemy. Specifically, Mastro writes, leaders look to two factors
when determining the probable strategic costs of demonstrating a
willingness to talk: the likelihood the enemy will interpret
openness to diplomacy as a sign of weakness, and how the enemy may
change its strategy in response to such an interpretation. Only if
a state thinks it has demonstrated adequate strength and resiliency
to avoid the inference of weakness, and believes that its enemy has
limited capacity to escalate or intensify the war, will it be open
to talking with the enemy. Through four primary case
studies—North Vietnamese diplomatic decisions during the Vietnam
War, those of China in the Korean War and Sino-Indian War, and
Indian diplomatic decision making in the latter conflict—The
Costs of Conversation demonstrates that the costly conversations
thesis best explains the timing and nature of countries' approach
to wartime talks, and therefore when peace talks begin. As a
result, Mastro's findings have significant theoretical and
practical implications for war duration and termination, as well as
for military strategy, diplomacy, and mediation.
Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has
struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between
China and Taiwan -today the Taiwan question is considered a
potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict.
Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan,
Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers
of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in
capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, and China's security
relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific. There is
increasing concern that Beijing is steadily shifting the balance of
power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. Recent advances in
Chinese air and naval power, along with changes in PLA doctrine,
have the potential to weaken deterrence and destabilize the
cross-strait military balance. At this critical juncture, there is
not question that this issue requires sustained, detailed analysis
and that many measures can and should be taken to reduce the threat
of conflict between China, Taiwan, and the United States. Assessing
the Threat offers such analysis as well as concrete suggestions and
crisis management practices for government and military leaders in
Washington, D.C., Beijing, and Taipei.
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