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Throughout their long history, the primary concern of central banks
has oscillated between price stability in normal times and
financial stability in extraordinary times. In the wake of the
recent global financial crisis, central banks have been given
additional responsibilities to ensure financial stability, which
has sparked intense debate over the nature of their role. Bankers
and policy makers face an enormous challenge finding the right
balance of power between the central bank and the state. This
volume is the result of an international conference held at Norges
Bank (the central bank of Norway). International experts and policy
makers present research and historical analysis on the evolution of
the central bank. They specifically focus on four key aspects: its
role as an institution, the part it plays within the international
monetary system, how to delineate and limit its functions, and how
to apply the lessons of the past two centuries.
This book provides a broad overview of monetary developments in
Norway over the past 200 years, using a rich variety of graphical
illustrations based on a unique data set of historical monetary
statistics, which will be documented and made available on the
Norges Bank website (in English) at http://www.norges-bank.no/en.
Throughout the book, Norway's monetary developments are anchored in
a historical context and in the development of monetary thinking.
Through their analysis of the historical data, the authors provide
new insights and comparisons to other Scandinavian countries, along
with an excellent examination of the development and character of
the banking and financial system in Norway.
There is now a remarkably strong consensus among academics and
professional economists that central banks should adopt explicit
inflation targets and that all key monetary policy decisions,
especially those concerning interest rates, should be made with a
view to ensuring that these targets are achieved. This book
provides a comprehensive review of the experience of inflation
targeting since its introduction in New Zealand in 1989 and looks
in detail at what we can learn from the past twenty years and what
challenges we may face in the future. Written by a distinguished
team of academics and professional economists from central banks
around the world, the book covers a wide range of issues including
many that have arisen as a result of the recent financial crisis.
It should be read by anyone concerned with better understanding
inflation targeting and its past, present and future role within
monetary policy.
Throughout their long history, the primary concern of central banks
has oscillated between price stability in normal times and
financial stability in extraordinary times. In the wake of the
recent global financial crisis, central banks have been given
additional responsibilities to ensure financial stability, which
has sparked intense debate over the nature of their role. Bankers
and policy makers face an enormous challenge finding the right
balance of power between the central bank and the state. This
volume is the result of an international conference held at Norges
Bank (the central bank of Norway). International experts and policy
makers present research and historical analysis on the evolution of
the central bank. They specifically focus on four key aspects: its
role as an institution, the part it plays within the international
monetary system, how to delineate and limit its functions, and how
to apply the lessons of the past two centuries.
There is now a remarkably strong consensus among academics and
professional economists that central banks should adopt explicit
inflation targets and that all key monetary policy decisions,
especially those concerning interest rates, should be made with a
view to ensuring that these targets are achieved. This book
provides a comprehensive review of the experience of inflation
targeting since its introduction in New Zealand in 1989 and looks
in detail at what we can learn from the past twenty years and what
challenges we may face in the future. Written by a distinguished
team of academics and professional economists from central banks
around the world, the book covers a wide range of issues including
many that have arisen as a result of the recent financial crisis.
It should be read by anyone concerned with better understanding
inflation targeting and its past, present and future role within
monetary policy.
Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the
economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack
from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late
1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical
foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification,
neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting
properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of
macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen
completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless,
unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened,
macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the
scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of
macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic
policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for
instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model
builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken
advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time
series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of
wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors
interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international
research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course'
model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is
a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated
against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve,
Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and
monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and
Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric
model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to
evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main
sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical
modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the
inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.
Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the
economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack
from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late
1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical
foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification,
neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting
properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of
macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen
completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless,
unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened,
macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the
scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of
macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic
policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for
instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model
builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken
advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time
series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of
wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors
interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international
research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course'
model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is
a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated
against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve,
Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and
monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and
Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric
model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to
evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main
sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical
modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the
inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.
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