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For millennia, humans waged war on land and sea. The 20th century
opened the skies and the stars, introducing air and space as
warfare domains. Now, the 21st century has revealed perhaps the
most insidious domain of all: cyberspace, the fifth domain. A realm
free of physical boundaries, cyberspace lies at the intersection of
technology and psychology, where one cannot see one's enemy, and
the most potent weapon is information. The third book in the Great
Power Competition series, Cyberspace: The Fifth Domain, explores
the emergence of cyberspace as a vector for espionage, sabotage,
crime, and war. It examines how cyberspace rapidly evolved from a
novelty to a weapon capable of influencing global economics and
overthrowing regimes, wielded by nation-states and religious
ideologies to stunning effect. Cyberspace: The Fifth Domain offers
a candid look at the United States' role in cyberspace, offering
realistic prescriptions for responding to international cyber
threats on the tactical, strategic, and doctrinal levels, answering
the questions of how can we respond to these threats versus how
should we respond? What are the obstacles to and consequences of
strategic and tactical response options? What technological
solutions are on the horizon? Should the U.S. adopt a more
multi-domain offensive posture that eschews the dominant "cyber vs.
cyber" paradigm? To answer these questions, experts examine the
technological threats to critical infrastructure; cyber operations
strategy, tactics, and doctrine; information influence operations;
the weaponization of social media; and much more.
"A fascinating look inside the complexities and enjoyment of
skiing. For every skier, from the beginner to the Olympic Gold
Medalist, this book provides a treasure of information." -PAUL
MAJOR, ATHLETIC DIRECTOR, U.S. SKI TEAM
"I was delighted to learn from this interesting book more about the
physics of a sport I have enjoyed for more than seventy years."
-NORMAN RAMSEY, NOBEL LAUREATE IN PHYSICS, HARVARD UNIVERSITY
1. Introduction to Bayesian Methods in Reliability.- 1. Why
Bayesian Methods?.- 1.1 Sparse data.- 1.2 Decision problems.- 2.
Bayes' Theorem.- 3. Examples from a Safety Study on Gas
transmission Pipelines.- 3.1 Estimating the probability of the
development of a big hole.- 3.2 Estimating the leak rate of a gas
transmission pipeline.- 4. Conclusions.- References.- 2. An
Overview of the Bayesian Approach.- 1. Background.- 2. Probability
Concepts.- 3. Notation.- 4. Reliability Concepts and Models.- 5.
Forms of Data.- 6. Statistical Problems.- 7. Review of Non-Bayesian
Statistical Methods.- 8. Desiderata for Decision-Oriented
Statistical Methodology.- 9. Decision-Making.- 10. Degrees of
Belief as Probabilities.- 11. Bayesian Statistical Philosophy.- 12.
A Simple Illustration of Bayesian Learning.- 13. Bayesian
Approaches to Typical Statistical Questions.- 14. Assessment of
Prior Densities.- 15. Bayesian Inference for some Univariate
Probability Models.- 16. Approximate Analysis under Great Prior
Uncertainty.- 17. Problems Involving many Parameters: Empirical
Bayes.- 18. Numerical Methods for Practical Bayesian Statistics.-
References.- 3. Reliability Modelling and Estimation.- 1.
Non-Repairable Systems.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Describing
reliability.- 1.3 Failure time distributions.- 2. Estimation.- 2.1
Introduction.- 2.2 Classical methods.- 2.3 Bayesian methods.- 3.
Reliability estimation.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Binomial sampling.-
3.3 Pascal sampling.- 3.4 Poisson sampling.- 3.5 Hazard rate
estimation.- References.- 4. Repairable Systems and Growth Models.-
1. Introduction.- 2. Good as New: the Renewal Process.- 3.
Estimation.- 4. The Poisson Process.- 5. Bad as old: the
Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process.- 6. Classical Estimation.- 7.
Exploratory Analysis.- 8. The Duane Model.- 9. Bayesian Analysis.-
References.- 5. The Use of Expert Judgement in Risk Assessment.- 1.
Introduction.- 2. Independence Preservation.- 3. The Quality of
Experts' Judgement.- 4. Calibration Sets and Seed Variables.- 5. A
Classical Model.- 6. Bayesian Models.- 7. Some Experimental
Results.- References.- 6. Forecasting Software Reliability.- 1.
Introduction.- 2. The Software Reliability Growth Problem.- 3. Some
Software Reliability Growth Models.- 3.1 Jelinski and Moranda
(JM).- 3.2 Bayesian Jelinski-Moranda (BJM).- 3.3 Littlewood (L).-
3.4 Littlewood and Verrall (LV).- 3.5 Keiller and Littlewood (KL).-
3.6 Weibull order statistics (W).- 3.7 Duane (D).- 3.8 Goel-Okumoto
(GO).- 3.9 Littlewood NHPP (LNHPP).- 4. Examples of Use.- 5.
Analysis of Predictive Quality.- 5.1 The u-plot.- 5.2 The y-plot,
and scatter plot of u's.- 5.3 Measures of 'noise'.- 5.3.1 Braun
statistic.- 5.3.2 Median variability.- 5.3.3 Rate variability.- 5.4
Prequential likelihood.- 6. Examples of Predictive Analysis.- 7.
Adapting and Combining Predictions; Future Directions.- 8 Summary
and Conclusions.- Acknowledgements.- References.- References.-
Author index.
"The authors of this book contend that the civil service system,
which was devised to create a uniform process for recruiting
high-quality workers to government, is no longer uniform or a
system. Nor does it help government find and retain the workers it
needs to build a government that works. The current civil service
system was designed for a government in which federal agencies
directly delivered most public services. But over the last
generation, privatization and devolution have increased the number
and importance of government's partnerships with private companies,
nonprofit organizations, and state and local governments.
Government workers today spend much of their time managing these
partnerships, not delivering services, and this trend will only
accelerate in the future. The authors contend that the current
system poorly develops government workers who can effectively
manage these partnerships, resulting too often in a gap between
promise and performance. This short, lively, and bipartisan volume,
authored by the nation's leading experts on government management,
describes what the government of the future will look like, what it
will need to work well, and how in particular the nation can build
the next generation of workers required to lead it. "
When data is collected on failure or survival a list of times is
obtained. Some of the times are failure times and others are the
times at which the subject left the experiment. These times both
give information about the performance of the system. The two types
will be referred to as failure and censoring times (cf. Smith
section 5). * A censoring time, t, gives less information than a
failure time, for it is * known only that the item survived past t
and not when it failed. The data is tn and of censoring thus
collected as a list of failure times t , . . . , l * * * times t ,
t , . . . , t * 1 z m 2. 2. Classical methods The failure times are
assumed to follow a parametric distribution F(t;B) with and
reliability R(t;B). There are several methods of estimating density
f(t;B) the parameter B based only on the data in the sample without
any prior assumptions about B. The availability of powerful
computers and software packages has made the method of maximum
likelihood the most popular. Descriptions of most methods can be
found in the book by Mann, Schafer and Singpurwalla (1974). In
general the method of maximum likelihood is the most useful of the
classical approaches. The likelihood approach is based on
constructing the joint probability distrilmtion or density for a
sample.
"A fascinating look inside the complexities and enjoyment of
skiing. For every skier, from the beginner to the Olympic Gold
Medalist, this book provides a treasure of information." -PAUL
MAJOR, ATHLETIC DIRECTOR, U.S. SKI TEAM
"I was delighted to learn from this interesting book more about the
physics of a sport I have enjoyed for more than seventy years."
-NORMAN RAMSEY, NOBEL LAUREATE IN PHYSICS, HARVARD UNIVERSITY
How can government leaders build, sustain, and leverage the
cross-organizational collaborative networks needed to tackle the
complex interagency and intergovernmental challenges they
increasingly face? Tackling Wicked Government Problems: A Practical
Guide for Developing Enterprise Leaders draws on the experiences of
high-level government leaders to describe and comprehensively
articulate the complicated, ill-structured difficulties they face -
often referred to as "wicked problems" - in leading across
organizational boundaries and offers the best strategies for
addressing them. Tackling Wicked Government Problems explores
howenterprise leaders use networks of trusted, collaborative
relationships to respond and lead solutions to problems that span
agencies. It also offers several approaches fortranslating social
network theory into practical approaches for these leaders to build
and leverage boundary-spanning collaborative networks and achieve
real mission results. Finally, past and present government
executives offer strategies for systematically developing
enterprise leaders. Taken together, these essays provide a way
forward for a new cadre of officials better equipped to tackle
government's twenty-first-century wicked challenges.
This ready-reference contains valuable insight for the engineer
faced with design and manufacture decisions. A continuation of
Sanders' two volumes on maintenance and repair, this volume
represents the first in a subsequent two volume set on mechanical
design and manufacture, completing the remaining portion of his
popular seminar. In this volume, Sanders turns his focus to design
options and the challenges faced in selecting and arranging the
components to optimize unit performance efficiency, reliability,
and safety, providing the reader with the necessary information to
evaluate the performance, refurbishment, and upgrading of a unit.
This book lets you: select the right components and find optimal
unit arrangement; understand the mechanical design and development
process; and, organize and prepare performance testing.
This monograph contains four chapters, each of which provides a
different perspective on biopesticides. Chapter One concerns the
use of biopesticides in sustainable agriculture, including the
interactions between biopesticides and chemical pesticides,
production issues, and opportunities for future research. Chapter
Two describes the bottom-up approach for using Bacillus
thuringiensis (Bt) as a biopesticide and for enhancing host plant
resistance against major foliage feeders through deployment of
suitable cry genes. Chapter Three reviews strategies for mitigating
the spread of Bt resistance and improving insecticidal activity
against Bt-susceptible pests. Lastly, Chapter Four aims to revise,
debate, and evaluate the effects of Bt as phosphate solubilizing
and phosphorus uptake by plant establishment.
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