3 While all of these explanations seem to have merit, there is one dominant reason why the percentage of GDP and employment dedicated to services has continued to increase: low productivity. According to Baumol's cost disease hypothesis (Baumol, Blackman, and Wolff 1991), the growth in services is actually an illusion. The fact is that service-sector productivity is improving slower than that of manufacturing and thus, it seems as if we are consuming more services in nominal terms. However, in real terms, we are consuming slightly less services. That is, the increase in the service sector is caused by low productivity relative to manufacturing. The implication of Baumol's cost disease is the following. Assuming historical productivity increases for manufacturing, agriCUlture, education and health care, Baumol (1992) shows that the U. S. can triple its output in all sectors within 50 years. However, due to the higher productivity level for manufacturing and agriculture, it will take substantially more employment in services to achieve this increase in output. To put this argument in perspective, simply roll back the clock 100 years or so and replace the words manufacturing with agriculture, and services with manufacturing. The phenomenal growth in agricultural productivity versus manufacturing caused the employment levels in agriculture in the U. S. to decrease rapidly while producing a truly unbelievable amount of food. It is the low productivity of services that is the real culprit in its growth of GDP and employment share.

Management science is a di scipl ine dedicated to the development of techniques that enable decision makers to cope with the increasing complexity of our world. The early burst of excitement which was spawned by the development and successful applications of linear programming to problems in both the public and private sectors has challenged researchers to develop even more sophisticated methods to deal with the complex nature of decision making. Sophistication, however, does not always trans 1 ate into more complex mathematics. Professor Thomas L. Saaty was working for the U. S. Defense Department and for the U. S. Department of State in the late 1960s and early 1970s. In these positions, Professor Saaty was exposed to some of the most complex decisions facing the world: arms control, the Middle East problem, and the development of a transport system for a Third World country. While having made major contributions to numerous areas of mathematics and the theory of operations research, he soon realized that one did not need complex mathematics to come to grips with these decision problems, just the right mathematics Thus, Professor Saaty set out to develop a mathematically-based technique for analyzing complex situations which was sophisticated in its simplicity. This technique became known as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and has become very successful in helping decision makers to structure and analyze a wide range of problems."

The recent global recession has revealed the vital importance of service-sector productivity in all developed economies. The challenge for scholars and professionals in productivity management (economics and management science) in the coming decade is clearly to improve the productivity of the services sector. Section I addresses the economy-wide problems of measuring service productivity and its impact on economic performance. The growing volume and recognition of trade and international competition in services is the subject of Section II. The first two sections together outline the broad parameters facing the economy and individual managers as they struggle to improve service productivity in an increasingly competitive international market. The specific steps to be taken are addressed in Section III. Section IV presents an operations management perspective on the productivity problem. Section V presents the problems and opportunities that exist in productivity improvement in market services (i.e. those industries where some degree of competition and market pricing exists). Finally, non-market services, a vital part of all developed economies, are discussed in Section VI. The Service Productivity and Quality Challenge presents the state of the art thinking on the service productivity challenge from a variety of disciplines. Rather than a cursory view of each discipline's perspective, the papers go into detail on each subject or industry. Taken as a whole, they provide a panoramic view of the problem and its potential solutions.