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This book describes practical techniques to formulate multiannual
macroeconomic projections for developing economies. The approach is
broadly similar to that of well-known financial-programming
"models", but some of the material, including solution procedures
for the external and fiscal projections and the external-debt
projection methodology, is innovative. The basic aim of
macroeconomic programming exercises is to determine whether a
quantitatively specified macroeconomic and government-expenditure
policy program would be "financially feasible" - that is,
consistent over time with external and internal financing likely to
be available. Exercises of the kind described here formulate
national-, external-, fiscal-, and monetary-accounts projections,
based on (i) assumed behavioral parameters; (ii) assumed
"exogenous" world conditions and internal variables; (iii)
programmed macroeconomic objectives such as real growth, inflation,
and exchange-rate evolution; (iv) programmed real government
expenditure; (v) an external-debt program; and (vi) data for the
"base" year preceding the projection period. The projections
include estimates of the external and internal financing the public
sector and economy as a whole would require, which may be evaluated
for feasibility. Among other applications, macroeconomic
programming exercises may be used to help gauge the financial
feasibility of development and poverty-reduction objectives (like
the UN Millennium Development Goals), or to address external-debt
"sustainability".
This book describes the complex of economic processes which
sustains inflationary pressure in nations with severe inflation
problems. Paul Beckerman uses an innovative approach to study the
strategies inhabitants of economies with lengthy inflation
experience use to maintain their purchasing power despite
inflation. He examines how these tactics function as 'feedback
mechanisms', economic processes by which inflation in any given
time period generates inflationary pressure in subsequent periods,
and how they complicate the efforts of policy-makers to achieve
stabilization.
This book describes the complex of economic processes which
sustains inflationary pressure in nations with severe inflation
problems. Paul Beckerman uses an innovative approach to study the
strategies inhabitants of economies with lengthy inflation
experience use to maintain their purchasing power despite
inflation. He examines how these tactics function as 'feedback
mechanisms', economic processes by which inflation in any given
time period generates inflationary pressure in subsequent periods,
and how they complicate the efforts of policy-makers to achieve
stabilization.
Early in 2000, Ecuador, confronted with a serious economic and
governance crises, adopted the U.S. dollar as its national
currency. The economic situation was dire with high inflation,
government intervention in the banking system including freezing of
deposits to prevent further flight from the country, and large
fiscal deficits. Politically, then President Mahaud was being
challenged by a congressional lack of support for measures to
stabilize the economic situation, a radicalized indigenous
movement, and a restive armed forces. In this environment, and as a
policy of last resort, the government decided to adopt the U.S.
dollar as its currency. This book thoroughly examines the
conditions in which this decision was made. It looks historically
at Ecuador's economic and social structure and assesses the impact
felt as a result of the decision.
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