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Research on human judgment and decision making has been strongly
guided by a normative/descriptive approach, according to which
human decision making is compared to the normative models provided
by decision theory, statistics, and the probability calculus. A
common empirical finding has been that human behavior deviates from
the prescriptions by normative models--that judgments and decisions
are subject to cognitive biases. It is interesting to note that
Swedish research on judgment and decision making made an early
departure from this dominating mainstream tradition, albeit in two
different ways. The Neo-Brunswikian research highlights the
relationship between the laboratory task and the adaptation to a
natural environment. The process-tracing approach attempts to
identify the cognitive processes before, during, and after a
decision. This volume summarizes current Swedish research on
judgment and decision making, covering topics, such as dynamic
decision making, confidence research, the search for dominance
structures and differentiation, and social decision making.
Sampling approaches to judgment and decision making are distinct
from traditional accounts in psychology and neuroscience. While
these traditional accounts focus on limitations of the human mind
as a major source of bounded rationality, the sampling approach
originates in a broader cognitive-ecological perspective. It starts
from the fundamental assumption that in order to understand
intra-psychic cognitive processes one first has to understand the
distributions of, and the biases built into, the environmental
information that provides input to all cognitive processes. Both
the biases and restriction, but also the assets and capacities, of
the human mind often reflect, to a considerable degree, the
irrational and rational features of the information environment and
its manifestations in the literature, the Internet, and collective
memory. Sampling approaches to judgment and decision making
constitute a prime example of theory-driven research that promises
to help behavioral scientists cope with the challenges of
replicability and practical usefulness.
Sampling approaches to judgment and decision making are distinct
from traditional accounts in psychology and neuroscience. While
these traditional accounts focus on limitations of the human mind
as a major source of bounded rationality, the sampling approach
originates in a broader cognitive-ecological perspective. It starts
from the fundamental assumption that in order to understand
intra-psychic cognitive processes one first has to understand the
distributions of, and the biases built into, the environmental
information that provides input to all cognitive processes. Both
the biases and restriction, but also the assets and capacities, of
the human mind often reflect, to a considerable degree, the
irrational and rational features of the information environment and
its manifestations in the literature, the Internet, and collective
memory. Sampling approaches to judgment and decision making
constitute a prime example of theory-driven research that promises
to help behavioral scientists cope with the challenges of
replicability and practical usefulness.
A 'sample' is not only a concept from statistics that has
penetrated common sense but also a metaphor that has inspired much
research and theorizing in current psychology. The sampling
approach emphasizes the selectivity and the biases that are
inherent in the samples of information input with which judges and
decision makers are fed. As environmental samples are rarely
random, or representative of the world as a whole, decision making
calls for censorship and critical evaluation of the data given.
However, even the most intelligent decision makers tend to behave
like 'naive intuitive statisticians': quite sensitive to the data
given but uncritical concerning the source of the data. Thus, the
vicissitudes of sampling information in the environment together
with the failure to monitor and control sampling effects adequately
provide a key to re-interpreting findings obtained in the last two
decades of research on judgment and decision making.
A 'sample' is not only a concept from statistics that has
penetrated common sense but also a metaphor that has inspired much
research and theorizing in current psychology. The sampling
approach emphasizes the selectivity and the biases that are
inherent in the samples of information input with which judges and
decision makers are fed. As environmental samples are rarely
random, or representative of the world as a whole, decision making
calls for censorship and critical evaluation of the data given.
However, even the most intelligent decision makers tend to behave
like 'naive intuitive statisticians': quite sensitive to the data
given but uncritical concerning the source of the data. Thus, the
vicissitudes of sampling information in the environment together
with the failure to monitor and control sampling effects adequately
provide a key to re-interpreting findings obtained in the last two
decades of research on judgment and decision making.
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