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"Oil stands alone among primary commodities in its potential for
sending economic shock waves across the world. The value of oil
production is one and a half times the world's total production of
food grains; demand is unresponsive to price in the short run; and
the world's oil resources are heavily concentrated in the Middle
East, where political disturbances have been chronic and oil supply
is subject to sudden interruption. Together, these factors have
made oil a virtual rogue elephant in the world economy since 1973.
This book discusses the oil shocks of 1973-74, 1979-80, and the
""minishock"" of 1990-91, and examines the possibility of oil
shocks over the next twenty years. The authors assess the world
market outlook on the basis of underlying trends on world oil
supply and demand. They take into account prospects for investment
in oil production in the Persian Gulf states, the former Soviet
republics, and Latin America; environmental factors and policies;
and political uncertainties in the Middle East. "
This volume is the record of a conference held in March 1989 that
centered on a departure from the basic U.S. policy toward the
long-standing problem of third world debt.Secretary of the Treasury
Nicholas Brady took the occasion of the conference to announce that
officially sponsored reduction of debt principal and debt interest
should henceforth be an integral part of debt strategy. Promptly
labeled the Brady Plan, the secretary's statement has since been
the subject of extensive debate at home and abroad. Now that it has
been given official sanction, debt service reduction has become an
inescapable feature of the ongoing effort to manage and resolve the
debt problem.This volume considers the implications of introducing
debt and debt service reduction into the preexisting menu of
policies and, more specifically, to suggest the conditions under
which it can be expected to hasten the removal of the third world
debt problem from the international economic agenda.
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