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This book presents the results of an international workshop on
Modelling and Analysis of Arms Control Problems held in Spitzingsee
near Munich in October 1985 under the joint sponsorship of NATO's
Scientific Affairs Division and the Volkswagen Foundation. The idea
for this workshop evolved in 1983, as a consequence of discussions
in the annual Systems Science Seminar at the Computer Science
Department of the Federal Armed Forces University ~1unich on the
topic of Quantitative Assessment in Arms Control 1) * There was
wide agreement among the contribu tors to that seminar and its
participants that those efforts to assess the potential
contributions of systems and decision sciences, as well as systems
analysis and"mathematical modelling, to arms control issues should
be ex panded and a forum should be provided for this activity. It
was further agreed that such a forum should include political
scientists and policy analysts working in the area of arms control.
This book presents a collection of contributions to a workshop on
"Long-teY'fr/ Development of NATO's Conventional Forrward Defense"
to which the GERMAN STRATEGY FORUM (DSF*" had invited some 50
systems analysts and defense experts of the United States, the
United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany and the SHAPE
Technical Centre. Held in Bonn from 2 to 4 December 1984, this
workshop was to provide a forum for the dis cussion, at a
non-political expert level and in the light of available analysis
results, of proposals for the improvement of NATO's conventional
defense capabilities. In addition, it aimed at arriving at some
recommenda tions as to which of these proposals deserve to be
studied further and what methodological deficiencies must be
alleviated and information gaps closed for an adequate assessment.
The idea to organize this workshop has been discussed ever since
1980 with several defense systems analysts in the US and the UK who
shared the opinion that, with a view to the immense global build-up
of the Soviet threat on one hand and the stringency of defense
resources in most NATO countries on the other, there is no reason
that could permit us to dismiss any proposal promising improvement
without careful study.
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