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In response to the global financial crisis, governments provided
substantial support to the financial and other key sectors.
Although this cushioned the adverse effects of the crisis, it is
necessary now to articulate a strategy to ensure the sustainability
of public finances. This paper discusses the scale and composition
of fiscal adjustment that will need to occur once the recovery is
securely under way. Although specific country-level circumstances
will influence the composition of the adjustment and its political
feasibility, in many cases restoring fiscal sustainability will
require reforms to reduce spending and increase tax revenue.
This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks, including
from unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables and banking
crises, which can have major consequences for countries' fiscal and
public debt sustainability. It builds on an overview of existing
practices in a wide range of countries to provide practical
suggestions on how to promote disclosure of such risks and on risk
mitigation and management. The paper was written in response to
requests from IMF member countries for advice on this subject. The
paper also includes an example of a possible statement of fiscal
risks.
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