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Agricultural production is sensitive to changes in energy prices,
either through energy consumed directly or through energy-related
inputs such as fertilizer. A number of factors can affect energy
prices faced by U.S. farmers and ranchers, including developments
in the oil and natural gas markets, and energy taxes or subsidies.
Climate change policies could also affect energy prices as a result
of taxes on emissions, regulated emission limits, or the
institution of a market for emission reduction credits. Here we
review the importance of energy in the agricultural sector and
report the results of a case study on the economic implications for
the farm sector of energy price increases that would arise from
plausible, constructed greenhouse-gas-emission reduction scenarios.
Higher energy-related production costs would generally lower
agricultural output, raise prices of agricultural products, and
reduce farm income, regardless of the reason for the energy price
increase. Nonetheless, farm sector impacts were modest for the
scenarios and time periods examined. We demonstrate the unique
distribution of effects resulting from price (or cost) increases
for different types of energy due to pricing their carbon content,
as well as the relative use of energy in production of different
agricultural commodities.
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