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This volume identifies and compares 'fiscal squeezes' (major
efforts to cut public spending and/or raise taxes) in the UK over a
century from 1900 to 2015. The authors examine how different the
politics of fiscal squeeze and austerity is today from what it was
a century ago, how (if at all) fiscal squeezes reshaped the state
and the provision of public services, and how political credit and
blame played out after austerity episodes. The analysis is both
quantitative and qualitative, starting with reported financial
outcomes from historical statistics and then going behind those
numbers to explore the political choices and processes in play.
This analysis identifies some patterns that have not been explained
or even recognized in earlier works on retrenchment and austerity.
For example, it identifies a long term shift from what it terms a
'surgery without anaesthetics' approach (deep but short-lived
episodes of spending restraint or tax increases) in the earlier
part of the period towards a 'boiling frogs' approach (episodes in
which the pain is spread out over a longer period) in more recent
decades. It also identifies a curious reduction of revenue-led
squeezes in more recent decades, and a puzzle over why
blame-avoidance logic only led to outsourcing painful decisions
over squeeze in a minority of cases. Furthermore, the volume's
distinctive approach to classifying types of fiscal squeezes and
qualitatively assessing their intensity seeks to solve the puzzle
as to why voter'punishment' of governments that impose austerity
policies seems to be so erratic.
The politics of cutting public spending or raising taxes (or both)
has dominated politics in many democracies in recent years. A new
era of conflict has developed, with old political alignments being
tested and new battles emerging over whose expectations are to be
disappointed and who should be blamed for fiscal squeeze. Do
parties who cut spending always go down to defeat in elections? Are
there 'best practice' cases that every government should follow
when it has to cut spending or raise taxes to balance its public
finances? Such issues have mainly been analysed from an economic or
financial perspective and in the context of recent cases. By
contrast, this book focuses on the politics of fiscal squeeze and
takes a longer view. It combines quantitative and qualitative
analysis to examine cases ranging from the fiscal squeeze in the
United States in the 1830s/40s (when half of the states then in the
Union defaulted) to the squeeze following the 2001 Argentinian
default. It assesses who were the winners and losers, who got the
blame and what were the longer-term effects on politics and
government. It argues that 'how to do it' approaches to fiscal
squeeze in democracies, based on apparently successful cases, often
fail to take into account profound differences in circumstances.
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