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This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time
series estimation methods were used to produce a probability
distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details
of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics,
satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects
and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability
distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern
Indian Ocean. The book describes particle-filter based numerical
calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution
and validates the method using data from several of the involved
aircraft's previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion
Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability
distribution.
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