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This textbook offers a comprehensive analysis of medical decision
making under uncertainty by combining Test Information Theory with
Expected Utility Theory. The book shows how the parameters of
Bayes' theorem can be combined with a value function of health
states to arrive at informed test and treatment decisions. The
authors distinguish between risk-neutral, risk-averse and prudent
decision makers and demonstrate the effects of risk preferences on
physicians' decisions. They analyze individual tests, multiple
tests and endogenous tests where the test outcome is chosen by the
decision maker. Moreover, the topic is examined in the context of
health economics by introducing a trade-off between enjoying health
and consuming other goods, so that the extent of treatment and thus
the potential improvement in the patient's health becomes
endogenous. Finally, non-expected utility models of choice under
risk and uncertainty (i.e. ambiguity) are presented. While these
models can explain observed test and treatment decisions, they are
not suitable for normative analyses aimed at providing guidance on
medical decision making.
This textbook offers a comprehensive analysis of medical
decision-making under uncertainty by combining test information
theory with expected utility theory. The authors show how the
parameters of Bayes' theorem can be combined with a value function
of health states in order to arrive at informed test and treatment
decisions in the face of diagnostic and therapeutic risks.
Distinguishing between risk-neutral, risk-averse, and prudent
decision-makers, they demonstrate the effects of risk preferences
on medical decisions. Furthermore, they analyze individual and
multiple tests as well as diagnostic models in which the
decision-maker chooses the test outcome. The consequences of test
and treatment decisions for the patient are encompassed by
quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and the standard economic
model, which applies the willingness to pay for health approach.
Lastly, non-expected utility models of choice under risk and
uncertainty are presented. Although these models can explain some
of the test and treatment decisions observed, they are less
suitable for normative analyses aimed at providing guidance on
medical decision-making. This third edition provides extensively
revised versions of all chapters and reflects recent innovations in
medical decision-making such as decision curve analysis. New
chapters focus on the health economics of and revealed preferences
in medical decisions. The book is intended for students of (health)
economics and medicine as well as for medical decision-makers and
physicians dealing with uncertainty in their test and treatment
decisions.
This textbook offers a comprehensive analysis of medical
decision-making under uncertainty by combining test information
theory with expected utility theory. The authors show how the
parameters of Bayes’ theorem can be combined with a value
function of health states in order to arrive at informed test and
treatment decisions in the face of diagnostic and therapeutic
risks. Distinguishing between risk-neutral, risk-averse, and
prudent decision-makers, they demonstrate the effects of risk
preferences on medical decisions. Furthermore, they analyze
individual and multiple tests as well as diagnostic models in which
the decision-maker chooses the test outcome. The consequences of
test and treatment decisions for the patient are encompassed by
quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and the standard economic
model, which applies the willingness to pay for health approach.
Lastly, non-expected utility models of choice under risk and
uncertainty are presented. Although these models can explain some
of the test and treatment decisions observed, they are less
suitable for normative analyses aimed at providing guidance on
medical decision-making. This third edition provides extensively
revised versions of all chapters and reflects recent innovations in
medical decision-making such as decision curve analysis. New
chapters focus on the health economics of and revealed preferences
in medical decisions. The book is intended for students of (health)
economics and medicine as well as for medical decision-makers and
physicians dealing with uncertainty in their test and treatment
decisions.
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