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Within the past decade, the U.S. military has implemented a number
of programs to assess the changes underway in the global security
environment and in the nature of warfare. Defense leaders and
thinkers have concluded that revolutionary change is taking place
and, if the United States develops appropriate technology,
warfighting concepts, and military organizations, it can master or
control this change, thus augmenting American security. In this
monograph, Dr. Steven Metz, who was one of the earliest analysts of
the strategic dimension of the revolution in military affairs,
suggests that official thinking within the U.S. military may be too
narrow. The information revolution, he contends, will have
far-reaching strategic effects. The transformation it brings will
not only be technological, but political, social, ethical and
strategic as well.
Security professionals and strategists are discovering the
post-cold war world is as rife with persistent, low-level violence
as its predecessors. In fact, many regions are experiencing a rise
in the amount of conflict in the absence of restraints previously
imposed by the superpowers. Since frustration in many parts of the
Third World is actually increasing, insurgency--the use of
low-level, protracted violence to overthrow a political system or
force some sort of fundamental change in the political and economic
status quo--will be an enduring security problem. Unfortunately,
most existing doctrine and strategy for dealing with insurgency are
based on old forms of the phenomenon, especially rural, protracted,
"people's war." But as this type of insurgency becomes obsolete,
new forms will emerge. It is important to speculate on these future
forms in order to assist in the evolution of counterinsurgency
strategy and doctrine. Dr. Steven Metz uses a psychological method
of analysis to argue that two forms of insurgency, which he calls
the "spiritual" and the "commercial," will pose the greatest
intellectual challenges to security professionals, military
leaders, and strategists. The specific nature of such challenges
will vary from region to region.
What design would I be forming if I were the enemy? "Y Frederick
the Great The great difficulty in forecasting the future strategic
environment and the force structure needed in response is the
plethora of variables that change the calculus. Only hindsight
reveals the failure of a Maginot Line or the brilliant success of a
mechanized Blitzkrieg doctrine. In the final analysis, the reader
must judge the line of reasoning. In this monograph, Dr. Steven
Metz and Lieutenant Colonel Raymond Millen examine the trends in
the strategic environment in their development of the Future
War/Future Battlespace. One fact is clear. Traditional warfighting
has changed in the post 9-11 era. The U.S. military must adapt or
fail. There is no other recourse. Dr. Metz and LTC Millen have
superbly framed the strategic environment into four strategic
battlespaces and have examined the ways future adversaries will
operate within them to thwart U.S. strategic initiatives. In this
context, these variables influence the path that Transformation
must take. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this
monograph as a topic of debate concerning Transformation and the
Objective Force. Douglas C. Lovelace, Jr. Director Strategic
Studies Institute
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