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This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice
associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the
face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools
supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty,
and their testing in the real world, including barriers and
enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional
approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks
related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned
in the application process can be used to improve the approaches
and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in
identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design
plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real
world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes
realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them
understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it
may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep
Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts.
Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under
deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive
Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision
Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked
out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps
to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights,
and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of
these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the
practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in
depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in
real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part
IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be
drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans
under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work.
The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud
University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology,
and Deltares.
Investigates strategies and policies for Korea to pursue,
particularly in science and technology, in light of a rising China.
Can Korea maintain its market position in both Chinese and world
markets as China becomes more competitive in many industries where
Korea currently has a relative advantage? This study develops a
simple model of the Korean economy and four alternative S&T
strategies that Korea could follow and shows how those strategies
may affect Korean prosperity, explicitly considering the many
uncertainties that Korea confronts.
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