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This unorthodox book derives and tests a simple theory of economic time series using several well-known empirical economic puzzles, from stock market bubbles to the failure of conventional economic theory, to explain low levels of inflation and unemployment in the US.Professor Stanley develops a new econometric methodology which demonstrates the explanatory power of the behavioral inertia hypothesis and solves the pretest/specification dilemma. He then applies this to important measures of the world's economies including GDP, prices and consumer spending. The behavioral inertia hypothesis claims that inertia and randomness (or 'caprice') are the most important factors in representing and forecasting many economic time series. The development of this new model integrates well-known patterns in economic time series data with well-accepted ideas in contemporary philosophy of science. Academic economists will find this book interesting as it presents a unified approach to economic time series, solves a number of important empirical puzzles and introduces a new econometric methodology. Business and financial analysts will also find it useful because it offers a simple, yet powerful, framework in which to study and predict financial market movements.
The purpose of this book is to introduce novice researchers to the tools of meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis and to summarize the state of the art for existing practitioners. Meta-regression analysis addresses the rising "Tower of Babel" that current economics and business research has become. Meta-analysis is the statistical analysis of previously published, or reported, research findings on a given hypothesis, empirical effect, phenomenon, or policy intervention. It is a systematic review of all the relevant scientific knowledge on a specific subject and is an essential part of the evidence-based practice movement in medicine, education and the social sciences. However, research in economics and business is often fundamentally different from what is found in the sciences and thereby requires different methods for its synthesis-meta-regression analysis. This book develops, summarizes, and applies these meta-analytic methods.
Meta-Regression Analysis in Economics and Business is the first text devoted to the meta-regression analysis (MRA) of economics and business research. The book provides a comprehensive guide to conducting systematic reviews of empirical economics and business research, identifying and explaining the best practices of MRA, and highlighting its problems and pitfalls. These statistical techniques are illustrated using actual data from four published meta-analyses of business and economic research: the effects of unions on productivity, the employment effects of the minimum wage, the value of a statistical life and residential water demand elasticities. While it shares some features in common with these other disciplines, meta-analysis in economics and business faces its own particular challenges and types of research data. This volume guides new researchers from the beginning to the end, from the collection of research to publication of their research. This book will be of great interest to students and researchers in business, economics, marketing, management, and political science, as well as to policy makers.
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