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This examination of policy developments in the People's Republic of
China since the Cultural Revolution addresses two central
questions: how durable were foreign and domestic policies during
the 1970s and what is the relationship between both of these policy
areas and internal political maneuvering?
This examination of policy developments in the People's Republic of
China since the Cultural Revolution addresses two central
questions: (1) how durable were foreign and domestic policies
during the 1970s; and (2) what is the relationship between foreign
and domestic policy and between both of these policy areas and
internal political maneuvering? Studies of five broad policy areas
reveal that most policies were very stable during this period and
that foreign policy was linked to domestic issues and political
competition only to the extent that it impinged on domestic
interests. The studies trace the evolution of policies on specific
issues such as education, foreign trade, and military doctrine, but
they also evaluate these policies and decisions in the larger
context to which they belong. Key decisions at the start of the
decade affected the evolution of policy in all areas and largely
shaped the change from adherence to precepts of the Cultural
Revolution to the conviction that economic and technical emphasis
must displace efforts to achieve social equality in the short run
if China is to become a secure and independent nation.
In From Mandate to Blueprint, Thomas Fingar offers a guide for new
federal government appointees faced with the complex task of
rebuilding institutions and transitioning to a new administration.
Synthesizing his own experience implementing the most comprehensive
reforms to the national security establishment since 1947, Fingar
provides crucial guidance to newly appointed officials. When Fingar
was appointed the first Deputy Director of National Intelligence
for Analysis in 2005, he discovered the challenges of establishing
a new federal agency and implementing sweeping reforms of
intelligence procedure and performance. The mandate required prompt
action but provided no guidance on how to achieve required and
desirable changes. Fingar describes how he defined and prioritized
the tasks involved in building and staffing a new organization,
integrating and improving the work of sixteen agencies, and
contending with pressure from powerful players. For appointees
without the luxury of taking command of fully staffed and
well-functioning federal agencies, From Mandate to Blueprint is an
informed and practical guide for the challenges ahead.
Uneasy Partnerships presents the analysis and insights of
practitioners and scholars who have shaped and examined China's
interactions with key Northeast Asian partners. Using the same
empirical approach employed in the companion volume, The New Great
Game (Stanford, 2016), this new text analyzes the perceptions,
priorities, and policies of China and its partners to explain why
dyadic relationships evolved as they have during China's "rise."
Synthesizing insights from an array of research, Uneasy
Partnerships traces how the relationships that formed between China
and its partner states-Japan, the Koreas, and Russia-resulted from
the interplay of competing and compatible objectives, as well as
from the influence of third-country ties. These findings are used
to identify patterns and trends and to develop a framework that can
be used to illuminate and explain Beijing's engagement with the
rest of the world.
Uneasy Partnerships presents the analysis and insights of
practitioners and scholars who have shaped and examined China's
interactions with key Northeast Asian partners. Using the same
empirical approach employed in the companion volume, The New Great
Game (Stanford, 2016), this new text analyzes the perceptions,
priorities, and policies of China and its partners to explain why
dyadic relationships evolved as they have during China's "rise."
Synthesizing insights from an array of research, Uneasy
Partnerships traces how the relationships that formed between China
and its partner states-Japan, the Koreas, and Russia-resulted from
the interplay of competing and compatible objectives, as well as
from the influence of third-country ties. These findings are used
to identify patterns and trends and to develop a framework that can
be used to illuminate and explain Beijing's engagement with the
rest of the world.
China's rise has elicited envy, admiration, and fear among its
neighbors. Although much has been written about this, previous
coverage portrays events as determined almost entirely by Beijing.
Such accounts minimize or ignore the other side of the equation:
namely, what individuals, corporate actors, and governments in
other countries do to attract, shape, exploit, or deflect Chinese
involvement. The New Great Game analyzes and explains how Chinese
policies and priorities interact with the goals and actions of
other countries in the region. To explore the reciprocal nature of
relations between China and countries in South and Central Asia,
The New Great Game employs numerous policy-relevant lenses:
geography, culture, history, resource endowments, and levels of
development. This volume seeks to discover what has happened during
the three decades of China's rise and why it happened as it did,
with the goal of deeper understanding of Chinese and other national
priorities and policies and of discerning patterns among countries
and issues.
China's rise has elicited envy, admiration, and fear among its
neighbors. Although much has been written about this, previous
coverage portrays events as determined almost entirely by Beijing.
Such accounts minimize or ignore the other side of the equation:
namely, what individuals, corporate actors, and governments in
other countries do to attract, shape, exploit, or deflect Chinese
involvement. The New Great Game analyzes and explains how Chinese
policies and priorities interact with the goals and actions of
other countries in the region. To explore the reciprocal nature of
relations between China and countries in South and Central Asia,
The New Great Game employs numerous policy-relevant lenses:
geography, culture, history, resource endowments, and levels of
development. This volume seeks to discover what has happened during
the three decades of China's rise and why it happened as it did,
with the goal of deeper understanding of Chinese and other national
priorities and policies and of discerning patterns among countries
and issues.
The US government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce
uncertainty: to monitor and forecast everything from the weather to
the spread of disease. In other words, we spend a lot of money to
anticipate problems, identify opportunities, and avoid mistakes. A
substantial portion of what we spend--over $50 billion a year--goes
to the US Intelligence Community.
"Reducing Uncertainty" describes what Intelligence Community
analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the
political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their
output. In particular, it looks at why IC analysts pay more
attention to threats than to opportunities, and why they appear to
focus more on warning about the possibility of "bad things"
happening than on providing the input necessary for increasing the
likelihood of positive outcomes.
The book is intended to increase public understanding of what IC
analysts do, to elicit more relevant and constructive suggestions
for improvement from outside the Intelligence Community, to
stimulate innovation and collaboration among analysts at all grade
levels in all agencies, and to provide a core resource for students
of intelligence. The most valuable aspect of this book is the
in-depth discussion of National Intelligence Estimates--what they
are, what it means to say that they represent the "most
authoritative judgments of the Intelligence Community," why and how
they are important, and why they have such high political salience
and symbolic importance. The final chapter lays out, from an
insider's perspective, the story of the flawed Iraq WMD NIE and its
impact on the subsequent Iran nuclear NIE--paying particular
attention to the heightened political scrutiny the latter received
in Congress following the Iraq NIE debacle.
China's future will be determined by how its leaders manage its
myriad interconnected challenges. In Fateful Decisions, leading
experts from a wide range of disciplines eschew broad predictions
of success or failure in favor of close analyses of today's most
critical demographic, economic, social, political, and foreign
policy challenges. They expertly outline the options and
opportunity costs entailed, providing a cutting-edge analytic
framework for understanding the decisions that will determine
China's trajectory. Xi Jinping has articulated ambitious goals,
such as the Belt and Road Initiative and massive urbanization
projects, but few priorities or policies to achieve them. These
goals have thrown into relief the crises facing China as the
economy slows and the population ages while the demand for and
costs of education, healthcare, elder care, and other social
benefits are increasing. Global ambitions and a more assertive
military also compete for funding and policy priority. These
challenges are compounded by the size of China's population,
outdated institutions, and the reluctance of powerful elites to
make reforms that might threaten their positions, prerogatives, and
Communist Party legitimacy. In this volume, individual chapters
provide in-depth analyses of key policies relating to these
challenges. Contributors illuminate what is at stake, possible
choices, and subsequent outcomes. This volume equips readers with
everything they need to understand these complex developments in
context.
China's future will be determined by how its leaders manage its
myriad interconnected challenges. In Fateful Decisions, leading
experts from a wide range of disciplines eschew broad predictions
of success or failure in favor of close analyses of today's most
critical demographic, economic, social, political, and foreign
policy challenges. They expertly outline the options and
opportunity costs entailed, providing a cutting-edge analytic
framework for understanding the decisions that will determine
China's trajectory. Xi Jinping has articulated ambitious goals,
such as the Belt and Road Initiative and massive urbanization
projects, but few priorities or policies to achieve them. These
goals have thrown into relief the crises facing China as the
economy slows and the population ages while the demand for and
costs of education, healthcare, elder care, and other social
benefits are increasing. Global ambitions and a more assertive
military also compete for funding and policy priority. These
challenges are compounded by the size of China's population,
outdated institutions, and the reluctance of powerful elites to
make reforms that might threaten their positions, prerogatives, and
Communist Party legitimacy. In this volume, individual chapters
provide in-depth analyses of key policies relating to these
challenges. Contributors illuminate what is at stake, possible
choices, and subsequent outcomes. This volume equips readers with
everything they need to understand these complex developments in
context.
The US government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce
uncertainty: to monitor and forecast everything from the weather to
the spread of disease. In other words, we spend a lot of money to
anticipate problems, identify opportunities, and avoid mistakes. A
substantial portion of what we spend--over $50 billion a year--goes
to the US Intelligence Community.
"Reducing Uncertainty" describes what Intelligence Community
analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the
political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their
output. In particular, it looks at why IC analysts pay more
attention to threats than to opportunities, and why they appear to
focus more on warning about the possibility of "bad things"
happening than on providing the input necessary for increasing the
likelihood of positive outcomes.
The book is intended to increase public understanding of what IC
analysts do, to elicit more relevant and constructive suggestions
for improvement from outside the Intelligence Community, to
stimulate innovation and collaboration among analysts at all grade
levels in all agencies, and to provide a core resource for students
of intelligence. The most valuable aspect of this book is the
in-depth discussion of National Intelligence Estimates--what they
are, what it means to say that they represent the "most
authoritative judgments of the Intelligence Community," why and how
they are important, and why they have such high political salience
and symbolic importance. The final chapter lays out, from an
insider's perspective, the story of the flawed Iraq WMD NIE and its
impact on the subsequent Iran nuclear NIE--paying particular
attention to the heightened political scrutiny the latter received
in Congress following the Iraq NIE debacle.
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